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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 28, 2022

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It would be ridiculous for Republicans to not expect primary shenanigans: in 2024, I expect vast swath of Democrats to coordinate in reregistering as Republicans and voting with Never-Trumpers for a particular non-Trump candidate in every state, or at least states which are key electoral states for the primary vote. Obviously, then, Democrats would gladly switch back to their own candidate for the general election. (Rush Limbaugh coordinated Republicans doing this in 2008, Operation Chaos, to force the Democrat superdelegates to pick between the first Black President and the first woman President).

What are ways that the Trump contingent could bring such a conspiracy to light without sounding like schizophrenic conspiracy theorists? And then how to combat such a scenario at the polls effectively?

It would be ridiculous not to expect Democrats voting in Republican primaries. It also usually wouldn’t be “shenanigans.”

There are 18 open primary states. Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, N. Dakota, Ohio, S. Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas were fully open and voted red in 2020. Anyone living in one of these states would be well within their rights to vote in the Republican primary. I expect them to vastly outnumber any partisans going undercover in closed states.

I did it this year, and I’ll do it again in 2024. Texas is still hugely Republican-biased, and I’d quite like to get some input on the election. Plus I get to vote against Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott twice.

Anyone living in one of these states would be well within their rights to vote in the Republican primary.

They'd also be well within their rights to move to a state with friendlier politics or push their own party to field candidates who are more competitive in the above states in question, so as to make the available options better.

Not sure why "cast a fruitless vote in a primary consisting mostly of people I inherently disagree with" somehow comes across as the optimal choice for influencing outcomes.

I'm really not sure how one can conclude this tactic is actually effective at improving the situation.

It seems pretty optimal to me. The cost of voting in one primary over another is pretty low. The benefit is, too, but that’s true for basically all political participation. I could spend actual time and money trying to herd the Democrats and see roughly as much effect.

As a bonus, I don’t inherently disagree with Republicans! In the general, I voted for a couple who were able to make sober, reasonably technocratic pitches. I’m not interested in supporting the populist wing. Is there really a difference between expressing that preference in the primary vs. in a non-competitive general?

The cost of voting in one primary over another is pretty low.

How much time do you spend researching candidates, their positions, background and their pros and cons? That is, what is the minimum amount of effort it really takes to be an 'informed voter' in this scenario?

What could you maybe do with that time instead?

Hm. I’d do the same basic research for either party, so I guess you’re now comparing to “instead of voting at all.” Video games, probably.

If you were to suggest an “optimal choice for influencing outcomes,” what would it be? Bonus points if it can be achieved in only a couple hours a year.

If you are a person of substantial means, probably giving money to a candidate who is in a tight race and where a few hundred or few thousand votes might actually tip things. If you have a PAC you find trustworthy then maybe just hand them the money. I'm skeptical of political donations as a class, however.

If you are someone with a decent amount of clout in a given community, then speaking to people who respect your opinion and might alter their voting pattern accordingly could work. This could lead to your input causing a shift in a few dozen votes (or if you've got REAL substantial reach, a few hundred!) which might have some impact on outcomes.

If you are an averageish joe with no particular wealth or clout in your community, you should probably just focus on your local races, maybe your state level races. And if applicable you should maybe focus on saving up enough wealth to either insulate yourself from the consequences of said elections or allow you to pick up and move somewhere else if the outcome is disfavorable enough (like, for instance, the apparent hundreds of thousands of people leaving California and New York). Getting too involved in political processes above the local level is a good way to set useful money and effort that could have gone to productive uses on fire/enrich political actors.