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HAPPENING NOW: ISRAEL LAUNCHES MASSIVE ATTACK AGAINST IRANESE NUCLEAR FACILITIES—AIR RAID SIRENS HEARD ALL ACROSS ISRAEL—MASSIVE AIR ACTIVITY OVER IRAQ-SYRIA BORDER—MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS CONFIRMED IN TEHRAN INCLUDING COLLAPSED BUILDING—IRANIAN FIGHTER JETS SEEN TAKING OFF FROM AIRSTRIPS NEAR TEHRAN—BALLISTIC MISSILE LAUNCHES REPORTED IN IRAN—REPORTS OF EXPLOSIONS AT US BASES IN IRAQ—MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS HEARD NEAR IRAN’S NATANZ NUCLEAR FACILITY—VIDEO FOOTAGE SHOWING NATANZ NUCLEAR FACILITY BURNING—UNCONFIRMED REPORTS THAT THE CHIEF OF STAFF OF THE IRANIAN MILITARY HAS BEEN KILLED IN A TARGETED STRIKE
—Inb4 source
—Inb4 “low effort post ban” Additional facts and my thoughts will be added as the situation develops
Some background for those just tuning in.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/damning-iaea-report-has-given-israel-additional-pretext-to-strike-iran
In short, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the head of state for the Islamic Repubic of Iran has stated on multiple occasions his desire to see "the Jews driven into the sea" and "eradicated". To this end it has been the official position of the Isreali government for decades now that a nuclear armed Iran poses an existential threat, and that they will take any and all action neccesary to prevent this. Most of the negotiations between the US, Iran, and other Arab countries over the last 15 years (Obama's vaunted "Nuclear Deal" and Trump's "Abraham Accords" to name two examples) have been oriented towards heading off this eventuality. However a recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency suggests that Iran has been concealing thier true capabilities and that they may be mere weeks from having a functional bomb if they do have one already and that furthermore they are expanding thier uranium enrichment facilities.
Iran has been weeks away from having a functional bomb for the last 20 years. It may sound like a joke, but I'm guessing it's their actual policy. There's currently a fatwah against nuclear weapons, and while Western ears may hear that as a half-hearted "we really mean we aren't developing nukes", the Iranian government violating its own fatwah would cause a loss of credibility that could be fatal to the regime. The goal appears to be "nuclear capable", meaning that if there were some existential threat, like a full-bore invasion, they could quickly produce a nuclear weapon, because at that point the benefits clearly outweigh the costs. Unless Israel seriously ratchets up these attacks, I doubt we'll ever see Iran openly testing nuclear weapons or making public announcements that they have them. Because if they do that apropos of nothing, what do they have to gain? People get even more pissed off than they already are, and Saudi Arabia starts its own nuclear program.
IAEA said they're days away from having 300 kg of weapons grade material, enough for a dozen nukes.(How they found out? Spooks? Or is it a lie)
Technologically not that stupid Iran stan was saying they already have a compact implosion design, and that the clandestine nature of their program and constraints(bunkers)have made Iran some of the develop world's best centrifuges.
If you're making plutonium byproducts leak and are detected, but you can do isotopic separation on uranium all you want and it's going to be hard to tell.
Then the nuclear deal was put in place, and estimates seemed to be in agreement that the breakout time would be weeks to months with out the deal, a year with the deal. Then COVID happened and nobody cared.
At this point I'm too lazy to keep checking for additional estimates, but you get the idea.
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