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What I find most interesting about the current Israel - Iran conflict isn't necessarily a lot of the geopolitical implications / consequences (although of course they are important), but instead the way the war is being waged. It seems, so far as I can tell, that they are almost entirely "trading missile strikes" and that no boots are on the ground, there isn't even really much of a naval component. Just missile centers in cities or in the desert shooting at one another, causing damage that, from a citizen's POV, is essentially random.
I know that the World Wars were considered horrible because death in combat felt so random due to bombings, machine guns, etc. Are we now entering a new stage of warfare where soldiers are barely even involved, and we just shoot missiles at each others population centers, trying to decapitate the enemy leadership?
On the one hand, it's certainly... cleaner, I suppose? Much better than the horrid conditions of trench warfare during the World Wars, at least based on what I've read about it. Still though, it feels extremely cold and random, disconnected from the perspective of the average person.
Then again, the whole war in the Ukraine is very much boots on the ground, even if drones are heavily involved. I'm not sure (obviously) exactly how the future of war will develop, but we are certainly seeing interesting new innovations as of late. And we have barely even scratched the surface of using AI in warfare!
What are your best predictions for how future warfare will develop?
What I found more interesting was Trump tweeted ‘get out of Tehran now’ and there were immediately massive traffic jams leaving Tehran.
That’s one example. This is a war that the U.S. is far less clearly involved in than Ukraine and which is clearly about US policy. Global hegemony isn’t waning.
What a claim. There were traffic jams leaving the city from day one. And still, the traffic probably did pick up after he made the threat, US & Trump is understood to be slavishly devoted to Israelis, likely to sign off on and aid a nuclear strike on the city.
Direct involvement in air defence, active support in the bombing campaign. This is less than in the first weeks in Ukraine?
no, it is not likely for start USA does not benefit from breaking nuclear taboo and after Israeli clean up conventional bombing will achieve the same things at lower costs
I am predicting you are wrong and your prediction will fail (with chances of USA/Israel using nuclear bomb on Tehran being deeply below 0.0000001% )
My point was about what I think Iranians believe to be plausible. I'm not predicting a strike in the current circumstances, though I do think US would sign off on it if Israelis made such a decision.
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