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I agree with basically all of this, but I need to nitpick two things
From what I recall, a ton of this is driven by them shopping on behalf of their families, which drives their "share" of consumer spending way up. However, I think "women be shopping and men are fine to live the life of a monk + a PC/Xbox" is very true and accurate to my life experience.
This trope/concept really bothers me. I think "revealed preference" totally falls apart when constraints and other limitations are placed on behavior. People cannot express their true preferences when their choices are limited by exogenous factors.
I will use my own life as an example, as I'm not sure how to demonstrate this empirically.
My girlfriend and I live in downtown Toronto, working solid but not extremely lucrative white collar jobs. We will be comfortably middle class, we'll probably eventually own a home, if we play our cards well a cottage too. But unlikely we'll flying around first class on vacations, to set the stage. We're in our late (late) 20s.
We live in a 600sqft 1+1 apartment. It's pretty affordable at this point (thanks rent control). If we re-leased the unit it would be $400ish more a month. To get an extra bedroom/move to an apartment in the 900sqft range would be close to an additional $1000ish a month.
We can fairly comfortably afford our current lifestyle, and I'm actually pretty confident having a kid wouldn't tank our "net income" too much as the additional child costs (not including daycare) would be offset by not buying $11 tacos when out with friends (or PC parts, or whatever).
However, we have no fucking space. So we'd need to get a bigger apartment, which would be pretty expensive. An extra $1000 a month + a kid + the astronomical cost of daycare is a nightmare. There are programs now to make daycare cheaper, and that does help. Although I think they have waitlist nightmares, etc.
This problem will resolve itself eventually. Another ~5 years should see each of us go through one or two promotion cycles, and then having a kid and the subsequent space upgrades are actually doable.
However, at that point I'll be in my mid 30s. I feel very strongly I don't want to be cranking out kids in my 40s. I have a niece and nephew who I love to hang out with, and I can feel how my youthful energy helps me keep up and engage with them. I can also feel this energy fading slightly with age. I don't want to be doing this in my 40s. So depending on timing, we'll very likely have 1 child. There's a decent chance we'll have 2 kids, as long as something doesn't set us back on the "income go up" track.
I would prefer to have 2 kids, but have a sinking feeling it'll end up being 1.
Is having 1 kid despite telling you I was 2 my revealed preference? Or my response to a ton of limitations and issues that I have no power to fix, only adapt to?
Sir, Irish immigrants of the past would raise a dozen kids in that space. Get to it!
This is true, it's also true that poor people (both in western nations, and worldwide) crank out more kids than wealthier people. So realistically if people who work as fast food cashier's and factory laborers can afford to have kids, us, with our mid-tier white collar jobs can too.
However:
/1) that sounds miserable, and like my life would become significantly more stressful with the addition of financial concerns (something I shaped my entire life around avoiding) and a space that is already too small for 2 humans and a dog becoming 3 humans + dog. We could put the crib in the den but then we'd need to throw out a huge # of our possessions, which are currently stored in the den about as efficiently as I could pack in floor to ceiling IKEA shelving and standardized boxes.
I guess one could snarkily point to "well that's just your revealed preference you don't actually want kids" which like okay? But I'm really sad and resentful at the state of society which forces to me to choose between security and less stress or my biological imperatives. So it doesn't feel like I secretly don't want kids but think I do, it feels like I'm choosing between two shitty options that I don't like.
/2) western society pushes a very strong narrative (not explicitly, but strong nonetheless) that your kids "quality" of life should equal or exceed your own.
If born right now, my kid wouldn't have a backyard to play in. We live across the street from a park, but it's downtown so it sometimes has homeless tents in it. Checking for needles in the sand of playgrounds is almost SOP down here. Moving to a fancy neighborhood (lots of "I support my neighbors in tents" lawn signs but never tents in their parks, weird...) is obviously out of the question (see: cost). This also means we have to take what we can get with school quality as there is a nice price premium for neighborhoods with the best schools.
I guess by the time the kid is old enough to have coherent memories we'd be making enough money to take them on vacation, etc, you get a bit of runway there.
But comparing my (extremely middle class) childhood to the childhood we could provide to a hypothetical child, it does raise the uncomfortable thought of
Can I provide an equal or better childhood than I had right now? Maybe, maybe not, trending towards not. If the answer is not it feels like I've failed as a parent and as a "successful" citizen. Which is uncomfortable and unpleasant.
And as a carrot on the stick in front of me, that answer changes to "definitely yes" come out household income increases another ~$50k annually, which is hopefully only a few years and job hops away...
It's also tough because my current career (mid tier finance, better than accounting, worse than IB) is extremely cognitively and time demanding. If I want to make more and move up, these demands will increase, until you get high enough they start decreasing again as you delegate to delegators. So the next 5 years of increasing my earnings will put my kid into a zero sum fight with my job for my time and energy.
/3) there's no village anymore. We moved away from family to live downtown because this is where the good jobs are and commuting 45min-1+hr each day is a hard no, massive evidence this makes you miserable. None of our friends are having kids for all the reasons I've explained, or OP has. So we'd be soaking it solo until we met other parents at school I guess. Makes it hard to trade kids to eachother to achieve informal childcare economies of scale, and grandma/grandpa live hours away.
/4 bonus) Unrelated, and not a great reason to not have kids, but im absolutely fucking horrified at the state of the education system right now. Between the corruption/inefficiency, complete inability to teach based on best practices, DEI insanity, and insane lack of funding (these kids are the future, why aren't we pouring money into them?!?!?!?) means I now also feel like 1) we need to ensure we are near a school that is less captured/ran by retards (now we're paying a school district premium on living costs) and 2) that I will need to dedicate substantial time to ensure my kid is actually getting a good education.
This has turned into an emotionally gratifying venting session, so thanks lol
I want to have kids, but every macro trend in society right now makes having kids a painful trade off, stressful, expensive, or very time consuming.
A few years from now the COL in Toronto will have increased a commensurate amount, and you will be saying the same kind of thing.
If you want kids, you have two options:
So far we've been beating CoL inflation, so the trend lines look good (even modelling the inevitable slowdown in wage growth with age). It just takes time, which biology doesn't seem to have gotten the memo about.
I haven't done the math, but I also wonder how well this actually plays on net. The best and highest paying jobs are in Toronto. If I move to Calgary and my wages and CoL both decrease (or stagnate), am I ahead? Especially because I can always sell a Toronto home and move to Calgary later, but the reverse doesn't work (assuming Toronto house price growth continues to outpace Calgary).
Also, thanks to my parents I am an east-coast latte-sipping downtown elitist lib-pilled yuppie (see my flair). So moving to Calgary (and Alberta generally, although I liked Austin so if Calgary was cool I'd deal with the awful governance) is not a very appealing option. Soy-jacking aside, I love the vibe of big cities, and the absurd fun and convenience they provide.
Finally, all my friends and family are in Southern Ontario. Most of my friends live a 15 minute walk/5 minute bike from my apartment. If we moved 3000km to have a kid, we'd be completely isolated from everyone we know (which isn't a permanent issue, as you make new friends, but damn...).
You may be beating CoL inflation in some basket-of-goods sense; you may even have more than doubled your salary (starting from a pretty low number) in the last ten years -- but you still can't afford a house, and the average home price in Toronto has been quite consistent in doubling every ten years since well before you were born. How much more than twice your current salary will you be making ten years from now, that you will be able to afford the house that you can't afford now?
This is... mostly false? O&G in Calgary offices pay quite well. Not "Bay Street Investment Banker" well, but it sounds like you are not that.
You don't have a home to sell -- you can't afford one and your rent money is disappearing instead of being (partially) stashed away as equity. This is unlikely to change for you in the future.
Says the guy from Toronto
"I like having fun, I can always have kids later" is... not a really unique attitude, but not a long walk from "I don't really want kids that bad".
And now you want to inflict this pain on your own (hypothetical) kid -- you need to break the cycle somewhere man.
I do actually hope to double my salary in the next ~5 years. I'm currently in PE-adjacent consulting and plan to move into actual PE once I get bored where I am.
Even without a doubling, I'm pretty confident we'll be able to buy in Toronto in the next 5-8 years, I mean hell, prices are so good right now we've been debating going all-in and being house-poor. It seems quite miserable though, I have worked extremely hard to not be paycheck to paycheck, so going back to that level of penny-pinching... Ugh
You make a fair point, I'm sure the O&G gang need people to do modelling, etc. I was interviewing at a mining company way back when and they were just so boring and dry. Maybe O&G attracts more charismatic people.
I know I know, Toronto governance is absurdly bad. I think what differentiates it is that Toronto is run poorly because no one does anything, Danielle Smith and her merry gang seem to be actively trying to break everything. Which feels worse I guess?
It's not so much "city fun kid boring", I fucking loved growing up in Toronto. I want my kid to experience that. And Toronto is so much better now than when I was a kid.
The Toronto escape plan is probably Hamilton, which I actually think is super under-rated. Although with Metrolinx shitting the bed on electrification that plan just got less attractive.
This comment is gonna be an answer to all the comments you've posted, so apologies in advance if its a bit scattershot/accusatory.
I completely respect the desire to raise your kids in Toronto, while maintaining a quality of life approximately equal to your own. However, I'd urge you to reconsider how you view the challenges facing you. I've personally seen the apartment that my grandparents raised their kids in, and they raised 3 children in a small 2 bedroom apartment. Space challenges are almost always actually about the challenge of giving up space, and not about the physical impossibility of fitting in a child.
I'd also like to point out that your career trajectory lines up with your family planning; your (hypothetical) child won't need to have their own room until they're a couple of years old. That matches up with when you expect your salary increases enough to be able to comfortably sustain a 2-bedroom apartment - the best time to have a kid is now, because you'll be able to afford a bedroom for them, when they need it.
These two statements are contradictory with respect to your desire to provide a better life for your children. If Toronto is so much better now than when you were a kid, how could it possibly be a downgrade in quality of life if you raise them up in Toronto now?
As for education, look into IB. Cheaper than Private school, more rigorous than Ontario High Schools.
I agree, Hamilton is underrated, but have you considered the towns in the Greater Toronto Area, such as Burlington, or Oakville? Boring yes, but damn good places to raise a kid.
Thanks for sending me your thoughts!
I have no doubt we could raise a kid here, for a bit. It would be a huge pain, but you are right it's likely the timing would work alright between career progression and the space needs of the family. I mentioned this before, but there is something shitty about having to "downgrade" versus your childhood. Scary thought if there's some job losses and we get stuck here, the den doesn't even have a door.
Honestly, the timing thing you mentioned is a compelling point. I think that's been percolating in my head for a while, and one of the reasons I latched onto this topic. The narrative of "we can't do it yet" is starting to have some cracks in the foundation (is this what brain development feels like?).
This is kind of in the weeds, but the existence of tents in Toronto parks doesn't mean all of Toronto is worse off. The city is bigger and more full of interesting places all over. It just sucks not having a backyard, OR living in a fancier neighborhood. I have never seen tents in Ramsden park (in Forest Hill) for example, but downtown residents don't lean on their city councilors very much (or have the wealth/clout to make their lives suck).
To be honest I find the existence of Burlington and Oakville both mildly offensive to my sense of what makes for a good city (terrible for the environment, unsustainable financially, and deeply opposed to anything changing ever). I don't want my kid to be shackled to me until they're 16, and despite being an avid cyclist in Toronto, I would be very uncomfortable with my kid biking around the streets of Oakville with their friends (not because of crime/stranger danger, because of oblivious drivers and a complete lack of bike infrastructure or respect for cyclists). And they can't walk anywhere because everything is at car distance.
My friends and I were taking the streetcar to and from school in packs at age 11/12, it was great. We could bike (or walk) to each other's houses without riding on or near mega-roads with average speeds north of 60km/h.
Also living in Hamilton means I can at least live and work in downtown Hamilton and have a quick commute. In Oakville or Burlington I'm either taking the GO train into Toronto (awful, especially now that electrification got fucked) or I am driving to some random business park in perpetually worsening YoY traffic (proven to be shitty to your life satisfaction).
This has turned into a shameless downtown elitist rant. Thank you for your perspective. I think you are right, I have not been considering the play you get with timing in the first few year's of your child's life. They don't get born with a need for a full on room to themselves, that takes time.
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