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Nope. Sticking to the agreed upon nuclear treaties and having IAEA continue to monitor things like they have which led to Iran not developing a nuke the last 20+ years despite neocons and Netanyahu fearmongering it would've made it less likely.
The IAEA declared Iran out of compliance in the runup to the bombings.
I'm a big fan of "stick to the treaties or else the freedom dorrito levels all your facilities" as having the right incentive gradient.
I think it's very unlikely the IAEA action was caused by anything Iran did. Normally they bend over backwards not to find any violations. So I suspect pressure was applied to get them to make this declaration in order to provide justification for the desired bombings.
So if the IAEA says they are in compliance --> they are in compliance.
If the IAEA says they are substantially out of compliance --> they are in compliance and pressure was applied (by whom?) to declare them out of compliance.
What would the IAEA do if they were actually out of compliance?
No. I think the IAEA will generally say they are in compliance regardless of whether they are, and most likely they have not been for quite a while.
doesn’t that make the fact that they we’re about to declare them out of compliance quite significant?
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This is predicated on Iran not developing a nuke in the next few years without the most recent conflict. It's impossible to know with only public information, but at least the US and Israel believed Iran was close enough to one to warrant an attack.
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