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US can't defend Taiwan's integrity anymore and has begun exploring "scorched earth" strategies instead. That's the conclusion of various US reports that David Goldman has read and now written about.
Trump's former NSA Robert O'Brien at a recent conference basically conceded the same argument, saying the US won't let China take Taiwan's semiconductor factories intact. So the focus has shifted from winning a war to making China's victory a phyrric one.
All this makes sense given that aircraft carriers are now more or less sitting ducks in the SCS given China's massive and rapidly growing missile inventory, many who can hit moving targets and that's even excluding hitting stationary ones such as airbases on islands, where China's hypersonic missiles can't really be defended against.
I guess the "good" news is that sending in US troops to die on foreign soil in large quantities has now been all but eliminated in the case of Taiwan. Senior US officials are telegraphing to the Taiwanese that if SHTF, then we will take out your crown jewels whether you like it or not. It also tells a story of diminishing US innovation advantage in military matters. America is still the top dog, but the days when it could send a few carriers to the Taiwan strait without seriously worrying about a Chinese military response - as Bill Clinton did in the 1990s - are now long gone.
I suspect the big constraint for China is now economic blowback. Chinese companies are still big exporters and would essentially lose those markets in the event of a major geopolitical conflict. This differentiates China from Russia, which doesn't have much to sell other than natural resources, is why I think a hot war over Taiwan is unlikely. And even in Ukraine, it's a proxy war and not a direct one. In Taiwan, all sides agree that the US would have to get directly involved for Taiwan to even have a chance because the numbers are absurdly lopsided in China's direction otherwise. I suspect the Taiwanese just didn't used to calculate that the Americans would be contemplating destroying vital Taiwanese infrastructure in the event of an outbreak of hostilities.
I was baked the other day and realized that the hippie classic One Tin Soldier is actually about Capitalism. Watch the video and listen to the song, it's only like three minutes.
The valley folk below envy and resent their neighbors on the mountain and their wealth. The mountain people are rich, the valley folk are poor. The valley folk, being retarded farmers, think that the mountain treasure must be in the form of some great pile of gold and jewels "buried deep beneath a stone." But that's not the case, gold and jewels don't make you rich, productivity makes you rich! Burying your money beneath a stone ruins the velocity of money!
The mountain folk are more than willing to share "All the secrets of our mountain, All the riches buried there." After all, trade is good! The more capitalist countries the more trade opportunities! We'll even lend to you on very favorable terms to develop the valley, to become more productive!
And what makes you productive, and thus rich?
Or, to put that in song: "Now they stood beside the treasure, On the mountain, dark and red, Turned the stone and looked beneath it, 'Peace on Earth' was all it said."
So the Mainland Chinese folk can "cr[y] with anger Mount your horses! Draw your sword!" And they can kill the Taiwanese and get their just reward, poverty. There is no treasure in Taiwan. Those who think the machines, or even the technicians, are some kind of physical asset are suffering from the superstitions of the Valley Folk or the brainworms of video game logic. The machines aren't worth a war and anyone who thinks they are is an idiot. What makes Taiwan rich is Peace on Earth. It is "peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice;" it is capitalism and rule of law; it is education and human development that encourages men to work to better themselves and their families. The ChiComms certainly aren't going to conquer Taiwan only to institute the same "One Country, Two Systems" policies they have used (and now reneged) in Hong Kong. And without freedom and rule of law, Taiwan will not be the rich nation it is now. There's nothing under the stone, guys.
So go ahead and hate your neighbor, go ahead and cheat a friend. It won't make you rich, and you can't justify it in the end. Cooperation and trade make you rich. Hopefully the ChiComms are bright enough to realize that the path to taking control of Taiwan is being so rich and so cool that Taiwan wants to join, not destroying what makes Taiwan great trying to snatch it.
The primary motive for reunification is territorial integrity and national pride.
It’s certainly not prosperity.
Go ahead and feed the people on national pride.
But the point is that China can have both! It will reclaim Taiwan, in time. If China is wealthy and rich and powerful, even if it loses Taiwan it will come back within a century. If China is weak and impoverished, even if it takes Taiwan it will lose it again within a century.
I think the leaders of China hold the same opinion. They'll just keep on trucking until the reunification sentiment in Taiwan grows large enough that it can happen peaceably. China also hasn't been trying to upend the status quo regarding Taiwan. It's the United States that for whatever reason has decided to jeopardize the One China policy.
I still struggle to understand the motive here, as the United States certainly got the better end of that deal. Of course they did, since China had no leverage at that time. All China got was to save face. The United States got to treat Taiwan as a sovereign country in every way except name and visits from high-ranking officials.
Taiwanese opinion is trending against reunification and toward independence. An increasing number of Taiwanese people identify explicitly as Taiwanese over Chinese.
(I agree that China isn't going to be running an amphibious assault against Taiwan unless a series of serious mistakes and miscommunications have been made.)
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