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A Report on the Relatively Recent Desire to Kill for Preah Vihear Temple & Thai Politics
Cambodia and Thailand are shooting at each other over temple ruins again. The same ruins at the center of the last temple related border dispute. Admittedly, Preah Vihear temple looks like a pretty rad, old temple. Oddly, neither Thailand or Cambodia host substantial numbers of practicing Hindus. It's the principle of the matter, I'm sure.
I. Preah Vihear: Origins
The French, as a benevolent colonial neighbors should, sought to clarify French Indochina's territorial relationships with its neighbors in the early 1900s. This included what is now Thailand, then Siam. In the Franco-Siamese treaties of 1904 and 1907 Siam ceded some territory and Siam gained some territory. What's relevant for this post is that it was agreed a geographic watershed would mark the border in an area between French Indochina and Siam. A simple natural barrier makes the cartographer's life easy.
Colonial overlords are popular for mucking up maps and France is no exception. True to stereotype, the French ignored terms set in the treaty when they put pen to paper. They either misunderstood the geography or decided to take the high ground for themselves. Mistake or not no one cared about forgotten ruins in the jungle, so Thai officials never contested the discrepency. That is until the 1950's-- a half century after the Franco-Siamese treaty of 1904. Thailand was nation building. It sought out opportunities to build nationalist sentiment, centralize control, and develop ethnic asabiyyah among its people. A perceived injustice can go a long way.
Thailand made its move shortly after Cambodian independence. There is no dispute that Thailand struck first in 1955. Thailand did not strike with bombs, bullets, or sneaky covert ops. The government of Thailand did something more insidious-- Thailand built a road.
That road went to Preah Vihear, because it was easy and they could. The same can not be said for Cambodia. The linked picture demonstrates why the Thai claim is not without reason. According to the wording of the 1904 treaty, the demarcation of the border should be on the "line of the watershed." That big valley below the temple? That's where the water runs. The water lands on the high ground and makes it way South to Cambodia. Water-shed. The cliff? Not the watershed. What's on top of the cliff? Not the watershed. So, Thailand built a road into Cambodian territory. Despite the fact that they relied on, and shared an understanding of, France's 1907 Annex I map for 50 years.
"You can't do that," Cambodia protested. To which Thailand responded, "You and whose French Foreign Legion?" Thailand then immediately moved troops to the temple on its fancy new access roads. In this way Thailand becomes de facto owner of Preah Vihear. Without firing a shot and for no great cause except the geography agreed with the action. Thailand can get to it while Cambodia faced a steep climb. The two nations bicker over this border dispute for the rest of the 1950s until the Cambodian government grew tired Thai intransigence.
II. The Peaceful Making of a Violent Grievance
The Cambodian government wanted resolution, but must have decided against warfare, because they took the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In 1962, the ICJ considered all the evidence and unambiguously ruled in favor of Cambodia. The primary reason the ICJ gave can be distilled to acquiescence by conduct. Thailand knew of the map, Thailand used the map, but Thailand never bothered to object to its inconsistencies. Given enough time without objection silence became, in the eyes of the ICJ, consent. Here's a PDF link to the 1962 ICJ ruling, but it is not exciting. Thailand begrudgingly accepted the ruling after they made clear they have cause to dispute other nearby areas. Thailand withdrew its troops from Preah Vihear Temple, but maintained a presence within several hundred meters.
Fast forward another half century without Preah Vihear news and, in 2008, Cambodia lobbies UNESCO for Preah Vihear to be added as a World Heritage site. This upsets Thai nationalists who were energized by turbulent, exciting times. A military backed coup a year prior had sent Thaksin Shinawatra -- Prime Minister, political dynasty patriarch, wealthy telecom mogul and oligarch -- into exile. If the perfidious Cambodian wasn't enough to demand action of the noble Thai people, then the fact Thailand's very own Foreign Minister supported the UNESCO bid certainly was. This led to the resignation of said Foreign Minister who, as an ally of now ex-PM-in-exile Shinawatra, was basically asking for it.
On July 15th, 2008, five days after the Foreign Minister's resignation, Thai and Cambodian troops exchanged gunfire near Preah Vihear. One Cambodian soldier was killed in the skirmish. It is here that we can say Preah Vihear Temple claims its first casualty. He died not due to tensions of the Vietnam War, nor did he lose his life for reasons downstream of Khmer Rouge horror. The first man fell 100 years after a treaty led to the creation of a map. A map everyone used and a map the French likely fudged for a theoretical benefit they'd never realize. This conflict heats up and, over the next three years, dozens of killed and hundreds of wounded can be attributed to the fight for Preah Vihear.
Cambodian representatives returned to the ICJ in 2011. This time they sought a ruling that would address the surrounding areas of Preah Vihear-- roads, hills, trails, and access stairways. The ICJ ruled in favor of Cambodia once more. The court declared the entire promontory as Cambodian clay. Thai officials begrudgingly grumbled.
III. Thailand's Turbulent Politics and the Shinawatra Dynasty
Which brings us to today. This past spring Thai soldiers shared misgivings with visiting Cambodian tourists. A Thai soldier steps on a mine and tensions are heightened. Come July, a metaphorical bombshell: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended from her role by a high court. PM Paetongtarn, a Cambodian translator, and the leader of Cambodia Samdech (Khmer honorific) Hun Se were engaged in a diplomatic call to decrease tensions. PM Paetongtarn's political opposition leaked the call, framed it as overly friendly (calling him "uncle"), accused her of appeasing a hostile nation, and declared an investigation into her potential treason. The PM claims she did nothing but represent her nation's interests. She awaits trial.
Here is one translation I found of the controversial phone call snippet. I didn't see anything I would consider treasonous. But, if the translation is accurate, then I can see to how the PM's enemies could smear her with it. It might be too informal, too chummy for diplomacy with a nation that's can be considered hostile. Inside the transcript, however, she states she needs to consult with her military before concluding the matter. On its face, this is deferential towards the military-royal establishment-- her main political enemies. One interesting irony in the translated excerpt:
Nope, no way this could leak. Very suspicious! To explain some of the hardline pressure on the PM we require a brief political overview.
The Shinawatra family is a powerful political dynasty. The aforementioned ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn's father, was exiled after being removed from power in 2008. PM Paetongtarn's aunt, Thaksin's sister, was similarly ousted in a 2014 coup. I'd call the Shinawatras New Money elite. The Shinawatra family's electoral power lies in rural, populist support. They are extremely wealthy and curry electoral favor by maintaining regional patronage networks in the country's North.
Shinawatras are in competition with the more conservative establishment elite. This is the traditional royalist establishment. The Old Money, Old Guard wield power from Central and Southern Thailand. It collects this power, places it in the capitol and coast, then manages much of the country with unveiled force. The Old Guard also maintains the marriage between monarchy and military. The establishment has control of the judicial branch such that ousting a PM, changing constitutional law, or dissolving political parties is barely an inconvenience. The censure and prosecution of political enemies has become routine in Thailand. The party dissolution is often predicated on the basis of criticizing King Rama X, thinking about criticizing the monarchy, or not supporting the monarchy enough.
IV. Why?
I sought out information on this conflict, because I was curious about the history of what was commonly reported as an old feud baked in blood. It's not an unreasonable assumption. We saw similar skirmishes to today just over ten years past. While the border dispute is old the willingness to send boys to fight and die over it is not. There is some military value of the land disputed, but not any significant amount when compared to 1904. These days there is some value in tourism at the temple, though I doubt enough to offset the costs of F-16 sorties.
These neighboring nations share a long border and a longer history. Each carries its own motivations that encompass more than any single, simple item like a temple. A conflict cannot be reduced to a 9th century Hindu temple. Still, the fight for Preah Vihear most resembles a manufactured conflict of political convenience to me. A nationalist narrative to be pulled out of pocket as political winds dictate or as an opportunity to cook up a kind of conflict comfort food. A home cooked war.
This looks like a really good piece, although we'll see what the commentariat comes up with. But, how would you feel about picking some of that to use on my Sentinel brief?
I don't know about its forecasting value, there's plenty of mess, but sure I'm not opposed to publishing a finer tune on your substack
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