Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
Extremely long Cummings substack piece: https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/a-talk-on-regime-change
If you had to read one part, read the speech he gave at Oxford, skip to: Text, Oxford, 19 June 2025
It's staggering. I'm one of the biggest Cummings-trusters and I thought he was overdoing it when it comes to the Civil Service on rotations. I check it and it's true. It's the most retarded idea I've heard for some time.
So much from his anecdotes (always the best parts of Cummings, otherwise he just repeats his main themes) reads like it came out of Yes Minister. The power of the Cabinet Secretary and impotence of the PM, Ministers just reading out their briefs, cabinet decisions made in advance by the official who drafts the minutes, everyone desperately beholden to the media. There's that bit about a lack of individual accountability for projects, straight out of the 1980s: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-pQcNKFoIDE
Sir Arnold from the show: "We already move our officials around every two or three years to stop this personal responsibility nonsense, if this scheme passes we'll be reposting them once a fortnight!'
I honestly like rotation schemes like this. There's a reason the military (in basically every developed country) does this. It prevents all sorts of corruption, promotes loyalty to the broader organization over narrow silos within the organization, and develops a generalized competence.
It might be implemented poorly in the UK, but that's not a reason to dislike the organizational system in principle.
Really? I don't think armies have people switching between infantry, electronic warfare, logistics and so on. You specialize and largely stay in your lane. You might have an opportunity to change lanes from time to time if your knees are shot and need a desk job... But one of the standard features of Western armies is that they have a highly experienced NCO corps who've done the same thing for ages and really know what they're doing. How could they gather that expertise as weapons officers or whatever if they're constantly moving around?
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Some items I'm looking at this week:
Geopolitics
Europe
Belarus threatens to shift Zapad-2025 military drills closer to NATO border
Spain participated in a Latvia NATO exercise.
Israel is accused of 'mass starvation' as 100 charities blast aid blockade: At least ten people 'die of malnutrition' in 24 hours
Gaza faces 'man-made' mass starvation due to Israeli aid blockade, World Health Organization says
Russia |launches| major military exercise 'july storm' in the Baltic Sea
Middle East
US looking into reports American citizen killed in Syria's Suwayda
Syria evacuates Bedouin from Druze-majority city
Iran
Donald Trump warns that US could strike Iran's nuclear sites again 'if necessary'
Iran says nuclear program will recover after US-Israel strikes
Iran says it will continue uranium enrichment despite U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities
Fires in Iran; Iran accussed Israel of sabotage
Gaza
Belgian King slams Gaza killings as 'disgrace to humanity' (ironic)
Asia
China starts construction of world’s biggest hydropower dam in Tibet; could dwarf Three Gorges Dam
China is acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment 5–6X faster than the United States
Thailand |deploys fighter jets| as border clashes erupt with Cambodia
Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have escalated following a significant military confrontation, where Thai fighter jets targeted Cambodian military| installations, representing one of the most serious conflicts in recent years. This escalation was precipitated by a prior incident in which a Thai soldier was injured by a landmine near the disputed border area, further straining relations that have long been marred by territorial disputes. Reports of direct clashes between troops from both nations and resulting civilian injuries have intensified fears of broader hostilities.
Thailand Deploys Fighter Jets as Border Clashes Erupt with Cambodia
Thai and Cambodian forces clash at border
Africa
Mozambican Opposition Leader Venancio Mondlane Charged Amid Tensions Over Post-Election Unrest – Medafrica Times
At least 1,000 people killed in a day South Sudan Ethnic Clashes
Cholera and other epidemics are side effects of endless war in Sudan
Mozambique seeks to prosecute opposition leader over post-election unrest
Bio
Scientists resurrected the 1918 “Spanish Flu” virus
Tech and AI
US nuclear weapons agency reportedly breached in Microsoft SharePoint attacks
Starlink is down
Chinese hackers breach US Nuclear Agency in Microsoft SharePoint cyberattack
Your link about chinese vs US weapon acquisition is broken.
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A Report on the Relatively Recent Desire to Kill for Preah Vihear Temple & Thai Politics
Cambodia and Thailand are shooting at each other over temple ruins again. The same ruins at the center of the last temple related border dispute. Admittedly, Preah Vihear temple looks like a pretty rad, old temple. Oddly, neither Thailand or Cambodia host substantial numbers of practicing Hindus. It's the principle of the matter, I'm sure.
I. Preah Vihear: Origins
The French, as a benevolent colonial neighbors should, sought to clarify French Indochina's territorial relationships with its neighbors in the early 1900s. This included what is now Thailand, then Siam. In the Franco-Siamese treaties of 1904 and 1907 Siam ceded some territory and Siam gained some territory. What's relevant for this post is that it was agreed a watershed would mark the border in a specific area on the Franco-Siamese border. A simple, natural barrier makes the cartographer's life easy.
Colonial overlords are popular for mucking up maps and France is no exception. True to stereotype, the French ignored terms set in the treaty. They either misunderstood the geography or decided to take the high ground for themselves. Of course no one cared about some muddy, forgotten ruins in the middle of nowhere. Not until the 1950's, a half century after the Franco-Siamese treaty of 1904, did Thailand challenge the claim. Thailand sought opportunities to build nationalist sentiment, centralize control, and develop ethnic asabiyyah. By what I am sure is mere coincidence, Thailand made its move immediately following Cambodian independence in 1953.
It's not in dispute that Thailand struck first in 1955. Thailand did not strike with bombs, bullets, or covert ops on behalf of its anti-communist benefactor. The government of Thailand did something more insidious. Thailand built a road. That road went to Preah Vihear, because it was easy and because they could. The same can not be said for Cambodia. The linked picture helps demonstrate why the Thai grievance is not without reason. According to the wording of the 1904 treaty, the demarcation of the border should be on the "line of the watershed." That big valley below the temple? That's where the water runs. The water lands on the high ground and makes it way South to Cambodia. Water-shed. The cliff? Not the watershed. What's on top of the cliff? Not the watershed. So, Thailand built a road into Cambodian territory. Despite the fact that they'd been relying on the "Annex I" French map for nearly 50 years
"You can't do that," Cambodia protested. To which Thailand responded, "You and whose French Foreign Legion?" Thailand then immediately moved troops to the temple on its fancy new access roads. In this way Thailand becomes de facto owner of Preah Vihear. Without firing a shot and for no great cause except the geography agreed with the action. Thailand can get to it, Cambodia faced a steep climb. The two nations bicker over this border dispute for the rest of the 1950s until the Cambodian government grew tired Thai intransigence.
II. The Peaceful Making of a Violent Grievance
The Cambodian government decided on a severe action. They took the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The ICJ considered all the evidence and ruled in favor of Cambodia. The main reason the ICJ gave was acquiescence by conduct. Thailand knew of the map, used the map, and never bothered to object to it. Given enough time, use, and opportunity silence was, in the eyes of the ICJ, consent. Here's a PDF link to the 1962 ICJ ruling, but it's not mindblowing. Thailand begrudgingly accepted the ruling, but only after they made clear they have further cause to dispute other nearby areas. Thailand withdrew its troops from Preah Vihear Temple, but maintained a presence within several hundred meters.
Fast forward another half century and, in 2008, Cambodia lobbied UNESCO for Preah Vihear to be added as a World Heritage site. This upset Thai nationalists who were energized by turbulent, exciting times. A military backed coup a year or so prior had sent Thaksin Shinawatra -- Prime Minister, political dynasty patriarch, wealthy telecom mogul and oligarch -- into exile. If the perfidious Cambodian wasn't enough to demand action, then the fact Thailand's very own Foreign Minister supported the UNESCO bid certainly was. This led to the resignation of the Foreign Minister who, as an ally of ex-PM-in-exile Shinawatra, was basically asking for it.
On July 15th, 2008, five days after the Foreign Minister's resignation, Thai and Cambodian troops exchanged gunfire near Preah Vihear. One Cambodian soldier was killed in the skirmish. It is here that we can say Preah Vihear Temple claims its first casualty. He died not die due to complicated tensions of the Vietnam War, nor did he lose his life for reasons downstream of Khmer Rouge horror. The first man fell 100 years after a treaty led to the creation of a map. A map everyone used and a map the French likely fudged for a theoretical benefit they'd never realize. This was roughly 50 years after the ICJ decided the temple was Cambodian territory.
This conflict heats up and, over the next three years, dozens of killed and hundreds of wounded can be directly attributed to the fight for Preah Vihear. Cambodian representatives returned to the ICJ in 2011. This time they sought a ruling that would address the surrounding areas of Preah Vihear-- roads, hills, trails, and access stairways. The ICJ ruled in favor of Cambodia once more. The court declared the entire promontory as Cambodian clay which made the temple even more Cambodian. Thai officials begrudgingly grumbled.
III. Thailand's Turbulent Politics and the Shinawatra Dynasty
This past spring Thai soldiers shared misgivings with visiting Cambodian tourists. This escalated to violence in May of 2025. Then, come July, a metaphorical bombshell: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended from her role by a high court. She is to await trial to defend her actions. The catalyst for this attack was a leaked phone call the PM made to the Cambodian head of state. PM Paetongtarn, a Cambodian translator, and the leader of Cambodia Samdech (Khmer honorific) Hun Se were all present for the private call. Their conversation concerned diplomacy in the hopes of de-escalating the violence. PM Paetongtarn's opposition leaked the call, framed it as overly friendly (calling him "uncle"), accused her of appeasing a hostile nation, and wants to investigate if she committed treason. The PM claims she did nothing but represent her nation's interests. She still awaits trial.
Here is one translation I found of the controversial phone call snippet. I didn't see anything I would consider treasonous, although if the translation is accurate, then I can see to how the PM's opposition could smear her with it. It might be too informal, too chummy for diplomacy with a nation that's shooting at you. But, if it works it works. She even states she needs to consult with her military before concluding the matter. That sounds deferential towards the military-royal establishment, her main political enemies, that are set on tearing down another Shinawatra. One small bit of irony in the translated excerpt:
Nope, no way this could leak. Very suspicious!
The Shinawatra family is a powerful political dynasty. The aforementioned ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn's father, was exiled after being removed from power in 2008. PM Paetongtarn's aunt, Thaksin's sister, was similarly ousted in a 2014 coup. I'd call the Shinawatras New Money elite. The Shinawatra family's electoral power lies in rural, populist support. They are extremely wealthy and curry electoral favor by maintaining regional patronage networks in the country's North.
Shinawatras are in competition with the more conservative establishment elite. This is the traditional royalist establishment. The Old Money, Old Guard wield power from Central and Southern Thailand. It collects this power, places it in the capitol and coast, then manages much of the country with unveiled force. The Old Guard also maintains the marriage between monarchy and military. The establishment has control of the judicial branch such that ousting a PM, changing constitutional law, or dissolving political parties is barely an inconvenience. The censure and prosecution of political enemies has become routine in Thailand. The party dissolution is often predicated on the basis of criticizing King Rama X, thinking about criticizing the monarchy, or not supporting the monarchy enough.
IV. Why?
I sought out information on this conflict, because I was curious about the history of what was commonly reported as an old feud baked in blood. It's not an unreasonable assumption. We saw similar skirmishes to today just ten years ago. While the border dispute is technically old the willingness to send boys to fight and die over it is developing history. There is some military value of the land disputed, but not any significant amount when compared to 1904. These days there is some value in tourism at the temple, though I doubt enough to offset the costs of F-16 sorties.
These neighboring nations share a long border and a longer history. Each carries its own motivations that encompass more than any single, simple item like a temple. A conflict cannot be reduced to a 9th century Hindu temple. Still, the fight for Preah Vihear most resembles a manufactured conflict of political convenience to me. A nationalist narrative to be pulled out of pocket as political winds dictate or as an opportunity to cook up a kind of conflict comfort food. A home cooked war. 1000 year old feuds have to start somewhere.
This looks like a really good piece, although we'll see what the commentariat comes up with. But, how would you feel about picking some of that to use on my Sentinel brief?
I don't know about its forecasting value, there's plenty of mess, but sure I'm not opposed to publishing a finer tune on your substack
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Cambodia and Thailand are fighting over disputed borders. Apparently, the International Court of Justice already ruled sixty years ago, and again ten years ago, that Cambodia is in the right, but Thailand has ignored those rulings.
I would assume that Thailand- as a middle income stratocracy- has the military power to just bully their third world neighbor into compliance?
Quote from 4chan's /k/ (weapons) board:
I mean, this just guarantees Cambodia will shoot one down with a stinger missile that was trafficked in by the CIA in the Vietnam war and sold to a guerrilla front after being captured and Thailand will discover maintenance issues preventing their fleet from operating, so...
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