Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
- 24
- 2
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
About a year ago, in a discussion of Ireland's rabid support for the Palestinian cause, I argued that it's primarily caused by misguided post-colonial solidarity and that "I've never gotten the feeling that Ireland is an antisemitic country".
That's a position I'm now revisiting:
For reference, Rathgar is a very posh suburb, with houses going for €1 million at the minimum.
A few weeks ago, my dad quoted some Israeli politician (whose name escapes me) at me who supposedly claimed that his proudest achievement was drawing an equivocation between anti-Zionism and antisemitism in the public consciousness. I accept that the two are not strictly equivalent, but I don't think anyone can dispute anymore (in Ireland or anywhere else) that the former can often serve as a cover for the latter. I am quite confident that the assailant made no effort to ascertain his victim's political affiliation (i.e. whether or not he was one of the "good Jews") before harassing and assaulting him.
As an aside, I can't help but marvel at how self-defeating this behaviour is. Whenever you assault someone because they look like they might be Jewish, you are precisely demonstrating Israel's entire raison d'être, the moral necessity of its existence.
Does a 1 million price flooe make something a 'very posh suburb' in Dublin? That sounds just like your regular middle-class suburb for a European capital.
Are house prices really that low in Dublin? I thought there was a tech driven housing crisis.
At a cursory inspection, 1 million was the cheapest I could find, but far from the average: many houses were a significant multiple of that. Rathgar is posh but admittedly not as posh as, say, Foxrock.
There is, although I prefer the term "shortage" to "crisis".
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
I'm getting a 403 from the website, can we get a check on Coulter's law? The quoted parts seem a bit cagey about the identity of "the assailant".
Another way to look at is: if you can't be anti-zionist without being antisemitic, because someone decided to draw an equivocation in the public consciousness that they're extremely proud of, there might come a point when they say "well, I guess that means I'm anti-semitic now".
That said, yeah, I feel the vibes have shifted on this, and it does feel kind of spooky.
I believe this is the video in question.
More options
Context Copy link
I wonder if it's a region-locked thing. Annoyingly, Internet Archive doesn't have it. Here's the full text anyway.
Yeah, I'd be curious about that myself. I would be surprised if the assailant turns out to be a white Irishman, but I can't say it's wholly outside the realm of possibility.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Sadly, no one ever does. Woke activists in the 2010s had absolutely no interest in finding out your exact views on race and sex before calling for your firing as a white man. As with Chinese Cardiologists, humans free-associate and they do it with a broad brush.
Broadly it seems that there is a cycle of persecution:
Does the existence of Jew-punchers on the bus suggest that they need their own state and should do whatever it takes to keep it? Yes.
Does the existence and behaviour of Israel/Mossad etc. push more people further towards such behaviour? Also yes.
How exactly does one Irish Jew minding his own business on a Dublin bus bear any responsibility for the actions of Netanyahu and Mossad? The implication that all Jews are collectively responsible for the actions of any individual Jew is about as close to a textbook definition of "racism" as I can envision.
I’m not making a legal case. I’m observing how, in practice, events and associations change public perceptions. And of course those perceptions change most sharply in the violent and unstable.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Extremely long Cummings substack piece: https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/a-talk-on-regime-change
If you had to read one part, read the speech he gave at Oxford, skip to: Text, Oxford, 19 June 2025
It's staggering. I'm one of the biggest Cummings-trusters and I thought he was overdoing it when it comes to the Civil Service on rotations. I check it and it's true. It's the most retarded idea I've heard for some time.
So much from his anecdotes (always the best parts of Cummings, otherwise he just repeats his main themes) reads like it came out of Yes Minister. The power of the Cabinet Secretary and impotence of the PM, Ministers just reading out their briefs, cabinet decisions made in advance by the official who drafts the minutes, everyone desperately beholden to the media. There's that bit about a lack of individual accountability for projects, straight out of the 1980s: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-pQcNKFoIDE
Sir Arnold from the show: "We already move our officials around every two or three years to stop this personal responsibility nonsense, if this scheme passes we'll be reposting them once a fortnight!'
I honestly like rotation schemes like this. There's a reason the military (in basically every developed country) does this. It prevents all sorts of corruption, promotes loyalty to the broader organization over narrow silos within the organization, and develops a generalized competence.
It might be implemented poorly in the UK, but that's not a reason to dislike the organizational system in principle.
Rotational schemes also have a key roll in cross-leveling institutional knowledge at the levels between the subject-matter-experts and the client policy-makers. In any given institution, the specific SMEs are rarely the ones directly briefing decision makers. This is because there are incredibly few policy-level topics where a single SME is sufficient. Instead there is inevitably some level of synthesis going on, and that synthesis is often being overseen by other leaders who need to know what other perspective/input is needed for a better whole. Leaders changing portfolios across their careers is important for understanding the interconnection of things related to what their initial expertise was.
This is more commonly recognized on the military side. The classic saying on the military side is that amateurs study tactics while experts study logistics. You do this by taking a weapons officer outside of just the weapons side of thing, and make them responsible for overseeing something more logistical, such as a small organization or some such. Platoon leaders lead platoons, Company Commanders oversee a Company supply section, Battalion Commands have entire supply Companies, and so on.
Well, more expert-experts also study not only logistics, but budgeting and manning. And force protection and military construction. And training and theory. To get senior advisors who can advise on the miltiary as a whole, you need a military progression system that increases exposure and understanding of other parts of the military. Leadership rotation schemes are part of that.
More options
Context Copy link
Really? I don't think armies have people switching between infantry, electronic warfare, logistics and so on. You specialize and largely stay in your lane. You might have an opportunity to change lanes from time to time if your knees are shot and need a desk job... But one of the standard features of Western armies is that they have a highly experienced NCO corps who've done the same thing for ages and really know what they're doing. How could they gather that expertise as weapons officers or whatever if they're constantly moving around?
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Some items I'm looking at this week:
Geopolitics
Europe
Belarus threatens to shift Zapad-2025 military drills closer to NATO border
Spain participated in a Latvia NATO exercise.
Israel is accused of 'mass starvation' as 100 charities blast aid blockade: At least ten people 'die of malnutrition' in 24 hours
Gaza faces 'man-made' mass starvation due to Israeli aid blockade, World Health Organization says
Russia |launches| major military exercise 'july storm' in the Baltic Sea
Middle East
US looking into reports American citizen killed in Syria's Suwayda
Syria evacuates Bedouin from Druze-majority city
Iran
Donald Trump warns that US could strike Iran's nuclear sites again 'if necessary'
Iran says nuclear program will recover after US-Israel strikes
Iran says it will continue uranium enrichment despite U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities
Fires in Iran; Iran accussed Israel of sabotage
Gaza
Belgian King slams Gaza killings as 'disgrace to humanity' (ironic)
Asia
China starts construction of world’s biggest hydropower dam in Tibet; could dwarf Three Gorges Dam
China is acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment 5–6X faster than the United States
Thailand |deploys fighter jets| as border clashes erupt with Cambodia
Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have escalated following a significant military confrontation, where Thai fighter jets targeted Cambodian military| installations, representing one of the most serious conflicts in recent years. This escalation was precipitated by a prior incident in which a Thai soldier was injured by a landmine near the disputed border area, further straining relations that have long been marred by territorial disputes. Reports of direct clashes between troops from both nations and resulting civilian injuries have intensified fears of broader hostilities.
Thailand Deploys Fighter Jets as Border Clashes Erupt with Cambodia
Thai and Cambodian forces clash at border
Africa
Mozambican Opposition Leader Venancio Mondlane Charged Amid Tensions Over Post-Election Unrest – Medafrica Times
At least 1,000 people killed in a day South Sudan Ethnic Clashes
Cholera and other epidemics are side effects of endless war in Sudan
Mozambique seeks to prosecute opposition leader over post-election unrest
Bio
Scientists resurrected the 1918 “Spanish Flu” virus
Tech and AI
US nuclear weapons agency reportedly breached in Microsoft SharePoint attacks
Starlink is down
Chinese hackers breach US Nuclear Agency in Microsoft SharePoint cyberattack
Here is how the weekly review ended:
More options
Context Copy link
If you want a better / more rounded list, just use the RealClear media roundup portal. The link is to RealClearWorld specifically for global emergent news, but there are a number of other portals (technology, energy, military, US politics, etc.) which provide more articles, from a broader selection of sources, daily.
More options
Context Copy link
Your link about chinese vs US weapon acquisition is broken.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
A Report on the Relatively Recent Desire to Kill for Preah Vihear Temple & Thai Politics
Cambodia and Thailand are shooting at each other over temple ruins again. The same ruins at the center of the last temple related border dispute. Admittedly, Preah Vihear temple looks like a pretty rad, old temple. Oddly, neither Thailand or Cambodia host substantial numbers of practicing Hindus. It's the principle of the matter, I'm sure.
I. Preah Vihear: Origins
The French, as a benevolent colonial neighbors should, sought to clarify French Indochina's territorial relationships with its neighbors in the early 1900s. This included what is now Thailand, then Siam. In the Franco-Siamese treaties of 1904 and 1907 Siam ceded some territory and Siam gained some territory. What's relevant for this post is that it was agreed a geographic watershed would mark the border in an area between French Indochina and Siam. A simple natural barrier makes the cartographer's life easy.
Colonial overlords are popular for mucking up maps and France is no exception. True to stereotype, the French ignored terms set in the treaty when they put pen to paper. They either misunderstood the geography or decided to take the high ground for themselves. Mistake or not no one cared about forgotten ruins in the jungle, so Thai officials never contested the discrepency. That is until the 1950's-- a half century after the Franco-Siamese treaty of 1904. Thailand was nation building. It sought out opportunities to build nationalist sentiment, centralize control, and develop ethnic asabiyyah among its people. A perceived injustice can go a long way.
Thailand made its move shortly after Cambodian independence. There is no dispute that Thailand struck first in 1955. Thailand did not strike with bombs, bullets, or sneaky covert ops. The government of Thailand did something more insidious-- Thailand built a road.
That road went to Preah Vihear, because it was easy and they could. The same can not be said for Cambodia. The linked picture demonstrates why the Thai claim is not without reason. According to the wording of the 1904 treaty, the demarcation of the border should be on the "line of the watershed." That big valley below the temple? That's where the water runs. The water lands on the high ground and makes it way South to Cambodia. Water-shed. The cliff? Not the watershed. What's on top of the cliff? Not the watershed. So, Thailand built a road into Cambodian territory. Despite the fact that they relied on, and shared an understanding of, France's 1907 Annex I map for 50 years.
"You can't do that," Cambodia protested. To which Thailand responded, "You and whose French Foreign Legion?" Thailand then immediately moved troops to the temple on its fancy new access roads. In this way Thailand becomes de facto owner of Preah Vihear. Without firing a shot and for no great cause except the geography agreed with the action. Thailand can get to it while Cambodia faced a steep climb. The two nations bicker over this border dispute for the rest of the 1950s until the Cambodian government grew tired Thai intransigence.
II. The Peaceful Making of a Violent Grievance
The Cambodian government wanted resolution, but must have decided against warfare, because they took the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In 1962, the ICJ considered all the evidence and unambiguously ruled in favor of Cambodia. The primary reason the ICJ gave can be distilled to acquiescence by conduct. Thailand knew of the map, Thailand used the map, but Thailand never bothered to object to its inconsistencies. Given enough time without objection silence became, in the eyes of the ICJ, consent. Here's a PDF link to the 1962 ICJ ruling, but it is not exciting. Thailand begrudgingly accepted the ruling after they made clear they have cause to dispute other nearby areas. Thailand withdrew its troops from Preah Vihear Temple, but maintained a presence within several hundred meters.
Fast forward another half century without Preah Vihear news and, in 2008, Cambodia lobbies UNESCO for Preah Vihear to be added as a World Heritage site. This upsets Thai nationalists who were energized by turbulent, exciting times. A military backed coup a year prior had sent Thaksin Shinawatra -- Prime Minister, political dynasty patriarch, wealthy telecom mogul and oligarch -- into exile. If the perfidious Cambodian wasn't enough to demand action of the noble Thai people, then the fact Thailand's very own Foreign Minister supported the UNESCO bid certainly was. This led to the resignation of said Foreign Minister who, as an ally of now ex-PM-in-exile Shinawatra, was basically asking for it.
On July 15th, 2008, five days after the Foreign Minister's resignation, Thai and Cambodian troops exchanged gunfire near Preah Vihear. One Cambodian soldier was killed in the skirmish. It is here that we can say Preah Vihear Temple claims its first casualty. He died not due to tensions of the Vietnam War, nor did he lose his life for reasons downstream of Khmer Rouge horror. The first man fell 100 years after a treaty led to the creation of a map. A map everyone used and a map the French likely fudged for a theoretical benefit they'd never realize. This conflict heats up and, over the next three years, dozens of killed and hundreds of wounded can be attributed to the fight for Preah Vihear.
Cambodian representatives returned to the ICJ in 2011. This time they sought a ruling that would address the surrounding areas of Preah Vihear-- roads, hills, trails, and access stairways. The ICJ ruled in favor of Cambodia once more. The court declared the entire promontory as Cambodian clay. Thai officials begrudgingly grumbled.
III. Thailand's Turbulent Politics and the Shinawatra Dynasty
Which brings us to today. This past spring Thai soldiers shared misgivings with visiting Cambodian tourists. A Thai soldier steps on a mine and tensions are heightened. Come July, a metaphorical bombshell: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended from her role by a high court. PM Paetongtarn, a Cambodian translator, and the leader of Cambodia Samdech (Khmer honorific) Hun Se were engaged in a diplomatic call to decrease tensions. PM Paetongtarn's political opposition leaked the call, framed it as overly friendly (calling him "uncle"), accused her of appeasing a hostile nation, and declared an investigation into her potential treason. The PM claims she did nothing but represent her nation's interests. She awaits trial.
Here is one translation I found of the controversial phone call snippet. I didn't see anything I would consider treasonous. But, if the translation is accurate, then I can see to how the PM's enemies could smear her with it. It might be too informal, too chummy for diplomacy with a nation that's can be considered hostile. Inside the transcript, however, she states she needs to consult with her military before concluding the matter. On its face, this is deferential towards the military-royal establishment-- her main political enemies. One interesting irony in the translated excerpt:
Nope, no way this could leak. Very suspicious! To explain some of the hardline pressure on the PM we require a brief political overview.
The Shinawatra family is a powerful political dynasty. The aforementioned ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn's father, was exiled after being removed from power in 2008. PM Paetongtarn's aunt, Thaksin's sister, was similarly ousted in a 2014 coup. I'd call the Shinawatras New Money elite. The Shinawatra family's electoral power lies in rural, populist support. They are extremely wealthy and curry electoral favor by maintaining regional patronage networks in the country's North.
Shinawatras are in competition with the more conservative establishment elite. This is the traditional royalist establishment. The Old Money, Old Guard wield power from Central and Southern Thailand. It collects this power, places it in the capitol and coast, then manages much of the country with unveiled force. The Old Guard also maintains the marriage between monarchy and military. The establishment has control of the judicial branch such that ousting a PM, changing constitutional law, or dissolving political parties is barely an inconvenience. The censure and prosecution of political enemies has become routine in Thailand. The party dissolution is often predicated on the basis of criticizing King Rama X, thinking about criticizing the monarchy, or not supporting the monarchy enough.
IV. Why?
I sought out information on this conflict, because I was curious about the history of what was commonly reported as an old feud baked in blood. It's not an unreasonable assumption. We saw similar skirmishes to today just over ten years past. While the border dispute is old the willingness to send boys to fight and die over it is not. There is some military value of the land disputed, but not any significant amount when compared to 1904. These days there is some value in tourism at the temple, though I doubt enough to offset the costs of F-16 sorties.
These neighboring nations share a long border and a longer history. Each carries its own motivations that encompass more than any single, simple item like a temple. A conflict cannot be reduced to a 9th century Hindu temple. Still, the fight for Preah Vihear most resembles a manufactured conflict of political convenience to me. A nationalist narrative to be pulled out of pocket as political winds dictate or as an opportunity to cook up a kind of conflict comfort food. A home cooked war.
This looks like a really good piece, although we'll see what the commentariat comes up with. But, how would you feel about picking some of that to use on my Sentinel brief?
I don't know about its forecasting value, there's plenty of mess, but sure I'm not opposed to publishing a finer tune on your substack
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Cambodia and Thailand are fighting over disputed borders. Apparently, the International Court of Justice already ruled sixty years ago, and again ten years ago, that Cambodia is in the right, but Thailand has ignored those rulings.
I would assume that Thailand- as a middle income stratocracy- has the military power to just bully their third world neighbor into compliance?
Quote from 4chan's /k/ (weapons) board:
I mean, this just guarantees Cambodia will shoot one down with a stinger missile that was trafficked in by the CIA in the Vietnam war and sold to a guerrilla front after being captured and Thailand will discover maintenance issues preventing their fleet from operating, so...
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link