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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   1748 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 17, 2025

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With all of the enthusiam of Ben Affleck, I figure that I should put some of my investment portfolio into Bitcoin. I expect that it'll move independently of or in opposition to the dollar. What is the boring approach do that, adjusting a boring set of current allocations across the usual boring large investment companies?

Thus far bitcoin has largely tracked US equities with higher beta. Given that bitcoin shares an investor base with leveraged magnificent 7 etfs, with many day traders, growth funds, FAANG gamblers and venture capitalists, the expectation would be that in the next financial crisis and stock market collapse that it would suffer a great fall in value. There has never been a prolonged global financial crisis in bitcoin’s existence.

It only lost 30% of its price during the April nonsense. Nvidia lost more. There were some early signs of btc perhaps turning into a safe haven for some people. Which is intriguing, though yes I agree it'll in all likelihood take a quick and serious beating in the next highly serious crisis. But that goes for most assets. Then it'll rebound. After a few hundred "deaths" as the media would have it, it's not too shabby at the Lazarus act.

I’m not predicting a permanent or final collapse, although it’s a tail risk. But I think a lot of people will rush for the exits if only because a lot of their other assets will have plummeted in value, they may have lost a job or other additional income and need to liquidate, and if you’re one of those people you may end up selling at the trough.

You're pretty much stating the obvious. Again.

People capitulating at the bottom is not unique to BTC. That comes down to poor planning and poor emotion management, regardless of the asset. But yes, like I already agreed with, BTC will take a quick and serious beating in the next crisis (before rebounding) because it'll be one of the first things people liquidate.

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