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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   1748 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for August 17, 2025

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Oddball future predictions, anyone?

Kilts become A Thing in at least some blue tribe cities by 2050. Sneered at by minorities and the red tribe.

More hippos in South America than Africa in 2100. Trophy hunters shooting them are a notable thing; periodic rumblings about introducing lions, saltwater crocodiles, tigers, bears to try to control their population have enthusiastic support from the dwindling number of locals but are opposed by everyone else.

Sailing returns as a low-value bulk cargo shipping mechanism.

Someone, probably China, introduces affirmative action for mothers in the workforce, 2040, and the idea spreads like wildfire. It is promptly used mostly for fraud, both on a corporate and individual level.

Sailing returns as a low-value bulk cargo shipping mechanism.

There are already a number of corporations working on adding wingsails to cargo ships for fuel savings, some of which have seen actual use. This article, for instance, gives figures like the following:

On one of its latest transatlantic voyages, Canopée recorded even higher fuel savings of 2.2 tons per day per wingsail. This corresponds to about 510 kW of equivalent engine power saved per wingsail, or 2 megawatt (MW) in total engine power equivalent. The ship even clocked a speed of 13.7 knots under sail power alone, a figure that underscores just how far wind propulsion technology has come.

Now, I haven’t looked into this enough to know whether this translates into actual cost savings or if it’s just an elaborate scheme to collect subsidies for being green. But I see it as evidence for the prediction coming true, and relatively soon at that.

Bunker fuel seems to be something like $500/MT -- so 6 tonnes saved per day is ~$3k I guess?

Not nothing, but the NPV might be a bit tough; not sure how much these sails cost?

That's also probably the ideal vessel for a sail system. Transporting bulky rocket parts below deck makes mounting the sails/masts straight forward, the low density cargo doesn't require a large displacement hull, and the ship probably doesn't need to run on a tight schedule. Container ships would have much more trouble finding room for the sails, and with more draft comes more hydrodynamic resistance, and so a requirement for much larger sails.

But maybe bulk carriers could get foils mounted cheaply and quickly. Even 0.1% fuel savings are a big deal in the industry.

Now I'm wondering what happened to all those startups that tried lashing a robotic kite to cargo ships...

the ship probably doesn't need to run on a tight schedule.

3 Ariane 6 launches in the last year, but it looks like they've got 9+ planned for 2026 ... I looked that up because I was going to talk smack about Ariane flight rates, but 9 Atlantic round trips per year might actually be in the sweet spot between "frequent enough that speed is important" and "infrequent enough that additional capital investment doesn't get a chance to pay off".

Now I'm wondering what happened to all those startups that tried lashing a robotic kite to cargo ships...

The most prominent one seems to have migrated to kite-based electrical generation. Not sure why, but it can't be a great sign for the idea. Is it just that cargo ships don't have much of a keel, so they only benefit from the component of the wind that's parallel to their course?

Is it just that cargo ships don't have much of a keel, so they only benefit from the component of the wind that's parallel to their course?

Can't imagine that's the case. The combination of tens of feet of draft and more than 10:1 aspect ratio of the hull should make significant lateral slip almost impossible. Even if sideward movement would be a problem, a relatively small, retractable foil at the front of the vessel should be able to compensate for that (in combination with the rudder).

I suspect bunker fuel is just to cheap. A kite system is purely additive (you need everything on board you've always needed, and then there's the new kite). So you save a couple of thousand dollars per day on fuel - if you're not becalmed, large parts of the Atlantic and Pacific are notoriously calm - but now need to train crew, maintain a new system, pay off the additional capex and deal with additional risk. The amortization period is probably to long for such a conservative industry.

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