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Notes -
Ezra Klein in the pages of the NYT on why the Democrats need to Shutdown the government.
TLDR: Trump is an authoritarian.
Back in March, Democrats justified keeping the government open by saying that the courts were restraining Trump, that a shutdown would only accelerate his executive power, and that markets were already punishing his recklessness re tarrifs. But now with Trump firing dissenters, using federal agencies against political enemies, and enriching himself and his allies through foreign investments and unchecked power, Klein says that none of those arguments hold anymore. The Supreme Court is now backing Trump on key issues, DOGE’s chaotic dismantling of the bureaucracy has slowed because Trump loyalists are running it, and the markets have largely adapted to the new normal.
Maybe the markets have normalized, but we shouldn't according to Klein. Democrats are politically and morally failing by continuing to fund a government that has become an instrument of authoritarianism. He outlines how Democrats could frame a compelling message around corruption and abuse of power, citing Senator Jon Ossoff’s July speech as an example of effective messaging that ties everyday struggles (like high medical costs and housing insecurity) to elite corruption. Specific examples the firing of agency heads like those at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Defense Intelligence Agency for political reasons, targeted investigations into critics such as Senator Adam Schiff and Attorney General Tish James, the FBI’s raid on Bolton’s home, masked ICE agents now conducting raids without identification or warrants, and National Guard troops being deployed to cities LA and DC.
Would shutting the government actually get the democrats what they want? Or would Trump just continue to govern by executive order and campaign on democrats shutting the government down?
Yes, but really no.
The democrats want to fight, and if shutting down the government counts then it's getting what they want by definition. However, a lot of the democratic party has reversed the causality on the nature of the government programs they want to keep open. Those programs are not preserved if the government shuts down; rather, a government shut down obligates those programs being closed. Moreover, existing law gives the executive significant leeway in determing who is deemed an essential person and who is not, with non-essential persons basically being sent home and thus unabled to execute any desired programs. These may be what you'll think of as executive orders, but Congress is the root of those authorities.
At best, the democrats can try to take enough other programs that the Republicans care about hostage to coerce the Republicans to protecting / restoring the programs the democrats care about. However, this is a relative pain tolerance issue, and, well...
Well, at least the Democrats can claim to be fighting if the Republican trifecta passes stopgap bills.
History has shown the executive has some flexibility on what stays open and closes in government shutdowns --- see Obama fencing off normally-unstaffed NPS facilities like the National Mall or Mt. Rushmore.
I would at least be slightly concerned about Trump running with it as a massive expansion of the DOGE cuts without accountability for the failures. Something like "Oops, this means we have to cut all [nonessential] grants to universities. Guess who gets to decide what is essential? Would be a shame if we couldn't catch up on budgeted spending within the fiscal year."
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