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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   39572 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025

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European growth these past few years has been remarkably bad? (source is world bank data if anyone has a better data source I'll accept that

From 2009 to 2024 we went from European countries being frequently ahead of the USA gdp wise (ex Netherlands, norway, ireland denmark) to functionally even (Finland, belgium, sweden) to only moderately behind (Germany, france UK), to by 2024 only Ireland being ahead, Norway being basically even, Denmark and the Netherlands moderately behind and everyone else significantly behind.

I never realized how big the eurozone crisis of 2014 was to Europe, it basically wiped a bit less than a decade of growth from the countries. Sure us Growth from 2019 until 2024 has been much greater than that of say germany (31% vs 17%) but in the 2009 - 2018 time frame the 4 countries that were ahead of the US grew 1.5% (netherlands) NOR 3.84% Ireland 54.87% (I know everyone goes Ireland cheats, but Irish GDP per capita isn't really any greater than New york, and it's only slightly higher than the state of california) DEN:4% while US growth was 33.29%

Yes Us growth is still dramatically higher than europe even excluding 2014, but 2014 provides a major thorn in the side. US grew at a 5.64% annualized growth rate from 2019 to 2024 while Germany only had a 3.22% annualized growth rate.

(also why are these growth numbers so high??? is the world bank doing nominal gdp and not RGDP?)

Still with these trajectories California will have a GDP higher than the country of germany by 2030.https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/04/23/california-is-now-the-4th-largest-economy-in-the-world/ (6% growth compounded vs 3% growth)

There's probably something I fundamentally misunderstand (though NVIDIA has a higher market cap than the entire german stock market) so maybe it's more "wtf uS growth is that big compared to northwestern europe why didn't I notice this before"

It's not an illusion due to the stock bubble, Europeans are poorer and only now starting to dimly appreciate how much poorer. But Conrad Bastable had a good blog post on this back in 2020. Unequal Growth: The Zero-Sum Games You Don’t See. Since then, everything became even more grotesque. I strongly recommend reading.

This essay began with one observation: In the first decade of the 2000s, the top 2 nations generated 31% of all the Economic Growth. In the next decade, their share double to 60% of Global Economic Growth. Growth is now a 2-player game.

……… The only escape is to grow faster than the median. Salary, investments, wages, bonuses, stock options, etc. etc. Whatever it takes. If you can grow faster than the average person, you’ll grow your personal Wealth quicker than the costs of these mandatory purchases are being raised.

That’s the only path to individual Wealth.

But the lesson applies at the national level too. Grow faster than the median or cost disease will eat your Wealth.

The first iPhone launched in mid-2007. You think Apple is going to lower prices in foreign markets just because those markets aren’t growing?

Don’t be silly. This chart applies all through your economy, for consumer and industrial goods alike.

Sure, there’s a bottom-tier product that exists to capture the revenue potential of whoever exists at the bottom of the market. But the top-tier product, the new technology, the new release, will continue to be priced under the assumption that those who purchase it are growing.

“Just economize, silly, nobody needs the newest iPhone” — yeah, I agree, I’m still using my 2016 model #pleb. But there’s a huge middle class in Japan and Europe that expects to have a certain purchasing power. A certain economic relevance. They’ve had it for 60+ years in most cases.

One imagines that feeling it slip away is a painful experience.

………

Conclusion

If United States GDP shrinks by $264B, while German GDP shrinks by $332B, as happened in 2009, both nations are hurting.

And Germany clearly hurts more — $68B more on an absolute basis, and by a greater percentage of its 2008 GDP. That difference widens the gap between the two nations.

But if the United States GDP grows by $2.5 Trillion while German GDP grows by $0.5 Trillion, as happened from 2016-2018, the gap between the productive capacity of the two nations widens by ~$2 Trillion.

Relative to the United States, Germany perhaps performed better in 2009 than 2016-2018.

Rationalists will be quick to point out that this is an unreasonable lens, as rational human actors should rather increase their personal income by $[X] even if their neighbour’s income increases by $[2X], than see their own income decrease by $[Y]. Assuming prices are static, I agree wholeheartedly.

But the lesson of Considerations on Cost Disease, The Bermuda Triangle of Wealth, and The Uncharity of College is that prices for the most important purchases will rise to consume most of the increased Wealth a society generates.

Globalization means the societal reference frame for many prices now becomes [the Most Productive society on Earth].

US GDP growth isn’t going to skyrocket your local rents in Germany (although Chinese GDP growth does appear to impact rents in Vancouver), but some of your favourite consumer goods will be priced according to US growth expectations.

You can grow or not grow, but that new iPhone will cost more regardless.

that new iPhone will cost more regardless

That is extreme nitpicking, but this is not true. iPhones do cost basically the same over decades for the the base model, and the pro models even got cheaper:

https://i.redd.it/fo16m7rgh4nb1.png

The launch price of the iPhone 6S in 2015 was $650. Inflation-adjusted that had the buying power of $885.01 today. And 10 years later now the new iPhone 17 costs only $799 (exactly the same price price as the iPhone 12 five years ago).

Until very recently, top of the line iPhones were totally getting more expensive. And iPhone is not the luxury phone any more, that's more like some overengineered thi-fold Huawei (to be matched by a folding iPhone when it comes out). But fair, iPhone index is worse than Big Mac index and if we want to study premium consumption, we need something else.

It seems to be that, weirdly, luxury goods (like iPhones) are getting cheaper or at least more affordable, while the basics (rent, food) are going up in price and zooming up in some instances.

We're getting a version of that Agatha Christies quote: "I never thought I'd be rich enough to own a car, or poor enough not to have servants".

There is this famous graph of consumer price changes in the last 20 years:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/price-changes-goods-services.jpg

Massively cheaper: Technology like software, computers, big hd televisions.
More or less same: Material consumer products like furniture or clothing More expensive: Food and Housing Massively more expensive: Services like childcare, college, hospital services

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