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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 6, 2025

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Has the shot already been fired?

There seems to be an uptick in worst case scenario chatter, people imagining scenarios spiraling out of control until political violence increases up to the level of civil war.

Ignore whether any of these are likely. Assume a world where the US does descend into some sort of organized violence, the low end somewhere along the lines of the Balkans and the high end a slug-out like the Civil War.

When historians (and just assume historians exist, even if they're AI) look back will they identify something that's already happened as one of the primary inciting incidents? I don't think we've had a Fort Sumter but is John Brown's body already marching?

Alternatively - and again only under the pure assumption that it happens, no implication meant as to the probability - if you think it hasn't happened yet, roughly how long until it does?

Hasn't been fired yet, but there's some obvious places where it might -- conflict between state law enforcement and Federal around immigration is one. Imagine the Portland judge's decision that Trump can't use the National Guard the way he wants stands. Antifa gets cocky and turns Portland into a riot zone again. Local law enforcement appears but essentially protects the rioters. Trump invokes the Insurrection Act (in the middle of the night of course) and sends in some National Guard unit arguably (but not definitely) in defiance of the judge's orders. Portland and Oregon declare this illegal and the staties try to stop them... there's your shot.

Alternatively, the decision DOESN'T stand. Trump uses the National Guard in more and more blue cities. Local law enforcement gets in a conflict with them, shots fired.

What actually happens is the police decide they’d rather live to cash their paychecks than shoot at federal troops.

Like sûre, the police being red is not going to stop them from carrying out liberal-coded orders. But the kind of insane far leftists who will go up against actual soldiers for leftist policy goals do not become cops.

What actually happens is the police decide they’d rather live to cash their paychecks than shoot at federal troops.

And if they're told that any officer who doesn't follow orders to shoot at federal troops will no longer have paychecks to cash, nor their precious, precious pension?

Cities in the sunbelt are hiring.

This isn’t arresting granny here, this is getting in a firefight while outgunned. They’re not suicidal.

Cities in the sunbelt are hiring.

Yes, but then you still have to start all over on building up that pension…

Beats dying before you get to it…