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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 6, 2025

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China just chose the nuclear option:

TLDR:

China’s Ministry of Commerce just created an extra-territorial export-control net around rare earths and anything made with Chinese rare-earth technology. The bar is set extremely low, so this will ripple through EVs, wind, electronics, and defense supply chains worldwide.

(Assuming that this isn't a ploy designed to be a bargaining chip in order to get Trump to overturn export restrictions on advanced chips).

Now, while rare earths are very much not rare (though they do come from the earth, mostly), 90% of the actual processing happens in China, even if many deposits are elsewhere. Why is that the case? Well, rare-earth mining is not the most eco-friendly of industrial processes, and everyone else prefers it happen outside their backyards.

Just about every consumer and commercial electronic item is wrapped up in this. China dominates processing and magnet making, so the 0.1% trigger will catch a very large share of motors, drives, sensors, HDDs, speakers, drones, missiles, EVs, and wind-turbine components that contain NdFeB or SmCo magnets.

Assuming that a pleasant agreement isn't reached by Trump and Xi, this is going to do numbers on the trout population, and the economy. I don't even have to specify which economy, it's that global. It'll take years to onshore or friend-shore processing, even if deposits could ramp up to meet the demand. Really, I can't stress the chaos this will cause if the Chinese truly exercise their discretion, so we're going to have to strap in and see. Maybe nothing ever happens, maybe it does.

Surely Trump backs down here. US MIC hard-needs rare earths, can't do without them.

I think this is a targeted blow against the defence and EV industries, not against chips or electronics generally. Chips have only a tiny amount of rare earths. Only things with Big Motors or Exotic Electronics like military hardware are really affected. HDDs should be fine if we recycle more, F-35s on the other hand are in real trouble.

Yet another huge environmentalist error: https://x.com/skepticaliblog/status/1912469666272059526

Yet another huge environmentalist error:

I don't think you can actually blame the environmentalists for a corporate executive deciding to cash out and make vast profits in exchange for fucking over his workers and the country he lives in over the long term, or the government failing to protect and nurture critically important businesses. In China, strategically important industries are protected by the government in recognition of how important they are - letting this industry get sold off to China is the equivalent of the CCCP deciding to save on costs by outsourcing all their internal communication infrastructure to Google and Microsoft.

Later on in the thread it brings up the closing of Mountain Pass for environmentalist reasons, one of the richest rare-earth mines in the world.