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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   2555 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 2, 2025

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

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Most of his launches are in-house for Starlink, and it's not clear Starlink's model is sustainable. His competition is slowly catching up to him, and much like with Tesla, his ideas to stay ahead are not panning out, to put it mildly. I'm pretty sure the trajectory of the two companies will be the same.

Also, you're shifting the goalposts. Your original argument was that it's not a big deal that Starship is delayed, and I gave an argument for why it is. Looping back to "but look at all the cool things that they did with Falcon" is irrelevant. This is the typical cycle of the conversations about Elon: use hype about the future to claim he's amazing, then claim the past should already be enough for you, when someone questions the claims about the future.

I still maintain that it's not a big deal if Starship is delayed, since firstly they're trying something new (reusable superheavy rocket) so there should be allowances for inherent difficulty. Also they're doing it with their own money instead of asking for gazillions from the US govt and then producing something worse than what came out in the 1960s.

I was responding to your point where 'Losing the Space Race Boogaloo to China seems like a fairly big deal.' but I don't see how this could be SpaceX's fault, even if Starship fails, the US is only ahead in space because of SpaceX. My 'goalpost-shifting' is a response to that.

I was responding to your point where 'Losing the Space Race Boogaloo to China seems like a fairly big deal.' but I don't see how this could be SpaceX's fault, even if Starship fails, the US is only ahead in space because of SpaceX.

If the Space Race is about the moon, I'm not even sure the US is ahead of China, and I don't see how you don't see it's SoaceX fault. They were supposed to have a whole bunch of milestones checked off by now, and they didn't make it to orbit yet.

Oh, they're still asking for and getting billions from the US govt; the differences between them (and Blue Origin) vs Boeing or Lockheed are that they're spending way fewer billions (probably over $10B for the whole Starship program R&D before SpaceX is done, but SLS and Orion are over $50B now), a minority of that spending is from the government (SpaceX's two HLS contracts total a bit over $4B, Blue Origin's one a bit under), and the spending disbursement is tied to milestones rather than to "here you go; if stuff's not working come back and ask for more" (though the milestones are way too front-loaded; these are very stringent contracts by NASA R&D standards but they're weak by any non-R&D standard).

I don't see how this could be SpaceX's fault

SpaceX bidding "Elon time" estimates rather than realistic schedule estimates might have been part of how they beat Blue Origin for the original HLS award, and this delayed Blue Origin's award by a couple years of legal/policy wrangling. If SpaceX's delays are more than a few years' worse than China's, and Blue Origin's are less than a couple years' worse, and there aren't any "Artemis II heat shield failure" or "Axiom discovers a huge flaw in its suits" level problems from others, then China will put astronauts on the moon before we return astronauts to the moon and it'll be in part because of that bid+award. Fingers crossed for Blue Origin, though; the New Glenn was supposed to first launch in 2020 and eventually got pushed back to 2025. Fingers crossed for Artemis II, too; it feels insane to launch humans in a reentry vehicle where we haven't yet done an unmanned test of our planned fixes for its chunks-were-breaking-off-the-heat-shield problem.

I disagree that China beating us here is a big deal, because "put a few men on the moon for the first time at $4B+ a pop marginal" (inflation adjusted) was a bad goal in the first place, and changing the goal to "for the seventh time" doesn't make it any better, whereas "plant ISS-scale skyscrapers on the moon for a fraction of the price" (or even "plant 20 tons a pop on the moon via commercial rocket flights") actually has some interesting long-term possibilities.

On the other hand, even my autist-adjacent heart sees some symbolic value to lapping China in the flags-and-footprints race, because: China has just beaten us in the Barbecue-In-Space Race! I reiterate: taikonauts are now enjoying steaks and bone-in wings fresh out of the oven! At least Sputnik had the decency to limit itself to a culturally-neutral "beep beep beep"; China's is driving a stake of shame into the very heart of America!

Most of his launches are in-house for Starlink

So far this year SpaceX has launched forty non-Starlink missions. That is no longer as many launches as the entire country of China, but it is more launches than any other country in the world, including (by a margin over 50%) the combined non-SpaceX remainder of the USA. It is more launches than all non-US non-China countries combined. It is also still more launched payload capacity than the entire country of China.

The fact that he launches even more for Starlink expands this accomplishment; it does not diminish it.

SpaceX is, obviously, empirically, numerically, by hundreds of percent, the only institution currently capable of competing with China in space.

Oh - but I nearly stopped while still just talking about cargo! Last time we talked about the options to launch humans I was hopeful for Starliner, but last year's flight had continuing reaction control system issues that ended up with its two test pilots waiting for extra SpaceX seats to bring them home again, and Boeing and NASA still haven't announced any potential timeline for an upcoming flight. SpaceX are currently still the only ones outside of China and Russia who operate a manned orbital spacecraft; their 4 manned launches in 2025 exceed China's 1 and Russia's 1 (hopefully soon to be 2).

Early next year SpaceX's US competition plan to put Orion in space with people on board for the first time, which is very exciting but terrifying. I want to use a kinder phrase than "flaming garbage", but I do see the photos in that article where literal pyrolysis tore chunks of its heat shield off like literal garbage. Orion's reentry capability is at the same "well, it did survive" stage as the Starship tests' ... or worse, because much of the Starship tests' damage is intentional, and unless you count ablation none of Orion's was. But, Musk will be flying another few dozen or hundred Starships before they dare put a human on board during reentry; NASA's Artemis policy, by contrast, is YOLO.

His competition is slowly catching up to him

Hopefully their future will see a little less gradatim and a little more ferociter.

I am non-ironically excited for the possibility that Blue Origin's upcoming second attempt to accomplish a booster landing is about to succeed. It's unlikely to have any more significant delays (we're just a few days out from the first launch window), and so long as it has no delays worse than have already occurred, their landing attempt will come slightly before the ten year anniversary of SpaceX accomplishing the same. It is awesome (though again I feel I must explicitly state that I'm not being sarcastic) that the leading team among SpaceX's most serious long-term competition may now be less than a decade behind them! But to anyone without a weird grudge against Musk, it's not tempting to overstate the magnitude of that awesomeness.

I am non-ironically excited for the possibility that Blue Origin's upcoming second attempt to accomplish a booster landing is about to succeed. It's unlikely to have any more significant delays (we're just a few days out from the first launch window), and so long as it has no delays worse than have already occurred, their landing attempt will come slightly before the ten year anniversary of SpaceX accomplishing the same. It is awesome that the leading team among SpaceX's most serious long-term competition may now be less than a decade behind them!

Uh-huh. How did the competition "being behind" Tesla detract from Cybertruck, Semi, Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus being dumpster fires, and the Chinese offering as good or better cars for cheaper? How does "being ahead" supposed to magically help Starship?

Is Cybertruck a dumpster fire? I see quite a few of them driving around, about as many as you'd expect for something as niche as an electric pickup truck. It's pretty nearly the only game in town there AFAIK -- is Rivian more or less of a dumpsterfire than Cybertruck?

If you listen to Tesla's earning's calls prior to it's launch, it was supposed to be their "best product ever", they haven't mentioned them a single time in quite a while, and the last time I remember he referred to it as "digging our own grave" with it.

EDIT: Musk was saying they're aiming for 200K sales annually, it looks like they're at ~60K total.

IDK man -- "not going as well as we'd hoped" with a brand new market segment isn't quite a "dumpster fire" in my book -- especially since it's hard to untangle the... political constraints that have come to the fore since launch. It did sell like twice as many units as the electric F150 in it's launch year; looks like Ford is selling slightly more in 2025, but emphasis there is 'slightly' -- maybe electric pickups are just not hot sellers?

Now (this)[https://www.reuters.com/business/stellantis-recalls-over-320000-us-vehicles-over-battery-fire-risk-says-nhtsa-2025-11-04/] is a (Big 3) dumpster fire!

IDK man -- "not going as well as we'd hoped" with a brand new market segment isn't quite a "dumpster fire" in my book

Well, when you're telling investors how great your company is going to be doing, because of a hot new product you're working on, which then proceeds to flop (as per the expectations you set yourself) I would call it a dimlater fire.

There's also something special-pleadingy about calling it a whole new market segment. It's a pickup truck. It competes with kther pickups.

maybe electric pickups are just not hot sellers?

Yeah... maybe it was a bad idea to bet on an electric piclup, then?

Now this is a (Big 3) dumpster fire!

Oh, the Cybertruck fits that criterion as well:

https://mashable.com/article/every-cybertruck-recall-full-list

There's also something special-pleadingy about calling it a whole new market segment. It's a pickup truck. It competes with kther pickups.

It does not -- if I want a pickup, I will go buy a regular 1/2 tonne 4x4 from a major manufacturer -- Ford alone sells nearly a million of these per year. Cybertruck/Rivian/F150L compete in this segment in the same sense as caviar competes with hamburger.

Yeah... maybe it was a bad idea to bet on an electric piclup, then?

Hard to know until you try! Anyways, it really depends on how much the bet cost and what the margins are like on the trucks that they are selling -- 'making less money than planned' is not a dumpster fire; 'losing money' might be. I don't know what these figures are, do you?

Oh, the Cybertruck fits that criterion as well

You will note a distinct lack of recalls related to issues of spontaneous combustion on that list -- really puts the 'fire' in dumpster fire!

It does not -- if I want a pickup, I will go buy a regular 1/2 tonne 4x4 from a major manufacturer -- Ford alone sells nearly a million of these per year.

That just means they're not very good trucks and are losing the competition. When the Model Y was the best selling car in a given year (or quarter, I forget), Elon was rightfully crowing about it. Same rules apply when things don't go his way.

Hard to know until you try!

And know that we know, we can call it a dumpster fire.

Anyways, it really depends on how much the bet cost and what the margins are like on the trucks that they are selling -- 'making less money than planned' is not a dumpster fire;

Opportunity costs are a thing.

Also, when you are trying to wow your investors with a shiny new product and how much it will sell, don't even get the order of magnitude right, and then see the sales cut by half the following year, yeah, that's a dumpster fire. The same thing with Optimus, if (or rather when) it turns out it's a dud, it will be pure cope to claim "well, it's not selling that much worse than Boston Dynamics".

I don't know what these figures are, do you?

No, sadly the world doesn't run on open source, and companies tend to be pretty cagey about their failures.

You will note a distinct lack of recalls related to issues of spontaneous combustion on that list

Well... that's technically correct, but it's not clear whether that's because they don't have an issue, or just don't want to make the recall public.

When you accused @RandomRanger of "shifting the goalposts", was that an honest concern of yours? I never said a word about Tesla.

I'm curious about when you think Tesla's competition was a decade behind Tesla, but mostly I'm just going to assume that you're shifting to Tesla because, when in the grip of Musk hate, all his companies look alike? They're not. The one building 2.5% of the world's cars and the one launching 85% of the world's spacecraft are in pretty different places.

It's definitely possible that the competition could catch up to SpaceX; I wish there were more even trying to catch up. Blue Origin is trying, though, and they're nearly a decade behind. Not a hyperbole decade, a look-at-the-calendar-and-subtract decade. RocketLab is trying, and with luck they'll succeed with the first Neutron flight next year and they'll only be 11 years behind.

I'm really excited about Stoke trying to surpass SpaceX; their first effort will never carry people but it's the first thing outside of China that could potentially undercut Falcon 9 on light cargo; they're the only serious attempt so far at rapid full reuse other than Starship.

In the context of the "new space race with China", it doesn't bode well that most of SpaceX's prospective competition is in China. LandSpace is probably ahead of Blue Origin, despite being 40% as old. If Starship fails, it's possible that after another ten years we'll be able to say "the Chinese offering as good or better cars launch vehicles for cheaper". Just waiting for that probably wouldn't be good American space policy, though. Ideally we'd have a second homegrown SpaceX, but we don't, and until we do they're both metaphorically and literally carrying us.

When you accused RandomRanger of "shifting the goalposts" was that an honest concern of yours?

Yes.

I never said a word about Tesla.

I know, it's called analogy. It meant to illustrate the fact that just because you reached a milestone before your competitors, doesn't mean you will forever stay ahead of them.

I'm curious about when you think Tesla's competition was a decade behind Tesla,

I dunno, I suppose when BYD first launched and Elon responded by maniacally laughing, but not having much of an argument for why they're bad.

but mostly I'm just going to assume that you're shifting to Tesla because, when in the grip of Musk hate, all his companies look alike?

Well, I do think that different companies managed by the same man are likely to suffer from the same management flaws. I don't think that's unreasonable.

I also don't hate Elon. I told you multiple times that I'd much prefer a world where I'm completely wrong about him. He's supporting most of the causes I support as well, and it would be a lot better fornmenif he proves to be a genius and vindicates ball these causes by proxy, rather than a hype peddler who's about to run out of luck and drag down all these causes with him.

I suppose I do get mildly annoyed that criticizing him inevitably summons fanboys acting like someone just murdered their dog.

Not a hyperbole decade, a look-at-the-calendar-and-subtract decade. RocketLab is trying, and with luck they'll succeed with the first Neutron flight next year and they'll only be 11 years behind.

This argument only makes sense if they managed to maintain the distance over those 11 years, and I'm that instead of doing that, they're sinking their advantage into boondoggle called Starship (which is when comparing SpaceX to Musk's other companies comes in handy, because the man really seems to like boondoggles). Starship is not going to the moon, it's definitely not going to Mars, it might end up doing it's LEO Pez-dispenser bit, but even that is not certain, and it's an open question if it does so in a cost-effective way.

Ideally we'd have a second homegrown SpaceX, but we don't, and until we do they're both metaphorically and literally carrying us.

No amount of SpaceX is going to help you, if what they're doing is retarded. You're not going to the moon with something that requires over a dozen refuellings, a space station that makes you wait a week if you miss a rendezvous, and a lander that is so tall it needs an elevator and lots of prayers to not tip over.

Not all of that is on SpaceX, but if they're so brilliant they should have raise some objections to the idea.

This argument only makes sense if they managed to maintain the distance over those 11 years

Then it's a good thing they've been maintaining some distance! In those years they've:

  • Increased Falcon 9 payload capacity over 50%
  • Added downrange booster recovery options
  • Added booster recovery from and reflight after missions beyond LEO
  • Begun launching national security payloads and NASA flagship payloads
  • Tested and made operational a super-heavy launch vehicle, also partly-reusable, launching it 11 times so far with no failures
  • Began reuse of their unmanned space capsule
  • Had the longest streak in history of successful operational launches of any rocket, then the longest streak of any company, by what is now the most reliable launch vehicle in history
  • Human-rated Falcon 9
  • Tested and made operational a manned space capsule, in the first manned launches from the US since Shuttle, and launched several dozen astronauts to orbit with no failures
  • Surpassed the total on-orbit flight time of any other manned launch vehicle (and of a few space stations)
  • Done launches with GEO insertion
  • Added fairing recovery
  • Added extended fairing options
  • Launched payloads to the Moon (orbit and landing), asteroids, and Jupiter
  • Increased their flight rate 20-fold, flying it far more frequently than any other launch vehicle in history, and more in total than any vehicle save Soyuz
  • Reused recovered boosters, now up to 30 times each, exceeding Shuttle for most-reused orbital rocket stage ever
  • Launched and are now operating enough active satellites to exceed the currently-active total of everyone else in history, by a factor of 2, with several million users and a million more every few months
  • Launched the most powerful rocket in history, nearly by a factor of 2, then recovered three of them and reflew two of them
  • Launched the largest single spacecraft ever (i.e. [edit: not] counting on-orbit assembly) into space
  • Successfully reentered and did a soft splashdown with the largest reentry vehicle ever, with the first live video of reentry ever, then did it again 4 times

Some of those are just firsts for SpaceX, but several are firsts for anybody in history. They are by far the most successful space launch developer in history, and have not been slacking ... and I'm just mentioning their technical achievements, which are secondary to what's actually best about them. The list above is a side effect of the work done lowering the cost of space access.

if what they're doing is retarded

Long ago, you had no idea what you were talking about, but you at least noticed it when I pointed out that SpaceX was indeed already flying astronauts, and you intended to do better. You still have no idea what you're talking about, but now you have no idea that you have no idea - you believe you know so much that you can call the people who are more correct retarded! I don't see how you can come back from that, but you have to try! I know that orbital refueling logistics is a lot more complicated than "look up, SpaceX put that light in the sky and it has people in it", and so I don't think I can get it past your biases this time, but I promise, there is a reason why everybody who hasn't been lobbied by SRB manufacturers is in favor of it, there is a reason why Blue Moon is also planning to do it, and there is a reason why even SLS, the epitome of huge disintegrating-totem-pole rockets, turned out to be unusable for its core mission without it. If we wanted to be the first to get flags and footprints on the moon, we should have canceled Artemis 8 years ago and saved $50B, because it turns out we already did that 50 years ago. If we want to do anything serious on the moon, then doing it 20 tons (Blue Moon Mk2, 4 launches per mission) or 100 tons (Starship HLS, definitely less than 20 per) at a go is the way to do it, but more importantly doing it at a high cadence to help amortize costs and reduce risks is also the way to do it. The marginal cost of a dozen launches even of a fully expended Starship is still cheaper than a single SLS launch.

and I'm just mentioning their technical achievements, which are secondary to what's actually best about them. The list above is a side effect of the work done lowering the cost of space access.

I agree they're secondary. Most of these aren't what I meant by distance. Distance would be things that are preventing their competitors from taking contracts that would otherwise go to them.

Starship HLS, definitely less than 20 per

How would you know that? The performance of Starship is currently unknown, any slip in how much fuel they'll be able to deliver, or how often they can do it, will result in the total number of necessary launches increasing. That's outside of details like we don't even know if they can do it.

and reduce risks is also the way to do it.

I'm a little skeptical that additional launches being necessary will result in lower risk.

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