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Trump is calling for the arrest and trial of six Democrat lawmakers who posted a video telling the intelligence community not to follow unlawful orders,. The video claims that the current administration is threatening democracy and the constitution, and that the military "must refuse illegal orders."
Trump also apparently had another post that just said, "SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH."
This is the first time I have genuinely increased the probability of a real civil war breaking out, this is an absolutely terrifying escalation by both sides. While the Democrats were hinting extremely obviously that the military / intelligence community should basically pull off a coup, I also think that Trump hinting back that they should be executed is way beyond the pale.
Hopefully we're still in nothing ever happens land? I for one do not want to live through a civil war.
How does a civil war actually manifest in the current environment? Terrorism sure. Although civilian Marxists have been pushing to arm themselves since Trump’s 2016 campaign, they’re still a few decades behind the right. The MAGA right is probably even better armed than normie Republicans.
The intelligence community and the brass may have a fair amount of anti-Trump sentiment, but I don’t think they command the loyalty of the grunts. In a coup attempt, I suspect the Marines would gladly clear out Langley and Fort Meade. The big, mostly red county map comes into play. Democratic strongholds, while densely populated, are essentially islands. Then there’s the constant refrain directed at 2A activists: “What are you going to do against a drone?” That argument collapses even faster than the standard rebuttal when the right controls the executive branch and the grunts. At that point it’s no longer armed civilians sabotaging your planes and drones on the ground - it’s Marines attacking the base itself. The left has almost no ability to project power outside the areas it already control
I don't know about that. The MAGA right almost by definition are a different group from core ideological conservatives, who do indeed have lots of guns. MAGA is probably better armed than average, and the most heavily-armed groups are indeed pro-MAGA, but Trump>republican challengers is not their ideology. YMMV, but my most heavily armed cousins supported Cruz in the 2016 primary and Desantis in 2024.
That being said, I do think you're mostly correct that the red tribe would win a civil war, although it would be a lot uglier than you're counting on. I also think the actually competent groups on the left know this, so they won't try anything.
My point isn't so much that it would be easy. More that with the current dynamic it's extremely unlikely to even happen in what I would define as "civil war".
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