This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Trump is calling for the arrest and trial of six Democrat lawmakers who posted a video telling the intelligence community not to follow unlawful orders,. The video claims that the current administration is threatening democracy and the constitution, and that the military "must refuse illegal orders."
Trump also apparently had another post that just said, "SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH."
This is the first time I have genuinely increased the probability of a real civil war breaking out, this is an absolutely terrifying escalation by both sides. While the Democrats were hinting extremely obviously that the military / intelligence community should basically pull off a coup, I also think that Trump hinting back that they should be executed is way beyond the pale.
Hopefully we're still in nothing ever happens land? I for one do not want to live through a civil war.
How does a civil war actually manifest in the current environment? Terrorism sure. Although civilian Marxists have been pushing to arm themselves since Trump’s 2016 campaign, they’re still a few decades behind the right. The MAGA right is probably even better armed than normie Republicans.
The intelligence community and the brass may have a fair amount of anti-Trump sentiment, but I don’t think they command the loyalty of the grunts. In a coup attempt, I suspect the Marines would gladly clear out Langley and Fort Meade. The big, mostly red county map comes into play. Democratic strongholds, while densely populated, are essentially islands. Then there’s the constant refrain directed at 2A activists: “What are you going to do against a drone?” That argument collapses even faster than the standard rebuttal when the right controls the executive branch and the grunts. At that point it’s no longer armed civilians sabotaging your planes and drones on the ground - it’s Marines attacking the base itself. The left has almost no ability to project power outside the areas it already control
The problem is if that gets bad enough, state governments and the feds eventually have to take sides. People including myself will often point out how the first American Civil War was militarily not much like a traditional civil war, and more like a war between two nations. But the political breakdown leading to that actually does look a lot like a civil war and you can see the progression:
Weirdos like us began to see the risks of future political breakdown over the slavery question as early as 1820, look at Jefferson’s “fire bell in the night” letter.
This political breakdown actually begins happening in 1832. The Nullification Crisis wasn’t over slavery, it was over taxes but everyone could see it could apply to other things too. Like slavery.
Actual incidents of bloodshed start to happen periodically. Nat Turner’s revolt happens in 1832. Elijah Lovejoy is murdered in 1837. It’s 20 years out from the beginning of major hostilities, but already everyone is on edge.
Mass scale lawfare begins in the 1840s. There are highly contentious compromises over admitting various slave and free states.
Large scale paramilitaries begin to form in the early 1850s. By 1854, there is actual low-intensity guerrilla warfare breaking out in Kansas.
The scale of the violence gets high enough that state actors and influential people are beginning to take sides. By the mid 1850s Pro-slavery and Pro-freesoil militias are getting lots of funding from somewhere to by sophisticated military hardware including artillery.
Things boil over in the late 1850s with the twin shocks of the Dredd Scott decision and John Brown’s raid. Dredd Scott and the fugitive slave means major institutions of the federal government are now openly taking sides in the conflict. John Brown’s raid shows that large scale business entities in the north are now willing to directly fund paramilitary attacks against the South with the aim of overthrowing their social order by force.
Lincoln is elected in 1860. The South begins to panic. The federal government they had weaponized is now going to be turn against them.
Most southern states still have no interest in secession. One particularly radicalized state, South Carolina, secedes from the union in 1860.
The first shots between South Carolina and the federal government are fired in early 1861. The lines are now drawn, and state governments now have to take actually have to take sides. The political order rapidly crumbles as state after state begins to secede.
America today seems to be in the 4-5 range, with worrying indicators that it’s about to go to stage 6.
What’s your model for a “traditional” civil war? I’d like to see this analysis applied to the Romans, the English, the Bolsheviks, whichever you think is most typical. I suspect the extreme asymmetry of various third-world conflicts is a modern phenomenon more than a traditional one.
Also, I don’t think Jefferson was slumming it with weirdos like us.
Vance on the other hand...
More options
Context Copy link
I’d say it applies fairly well to all three of those.
The lawfare and sporadic outbreaks violence started a lot earlier with Rome (about 40-80 years before formal military activity). The formal state apparatuses got dragged in a lot faster. But otherwise this mostly holds.
It applies less well to the English Civil War, since that originated as jostling between two branches of the government. But you do see lawfare (arrest warrants and royal prosecutions) before the outbreak of formal hostilities.
There was an increasingly intense pattern of SR terrorist activity and labor strike actions beginning in the 1880s, that then eventually dragged in the people and the military against the Tsar.
Sh-sh-shut up! * sobs *
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link