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As @sarker points out above it appears that crime does not, in fact, disproportionately impact trans people.
From @sarker's comment:
So, trans people are fifty times less likely to be murdered than a random American? That doesn't pass the smell test.
As @FtttG points out below, trans people are substantially more likely to report being the victim of a crime, though that comes with obvious caveats. But some basic sanity checks: trans people are also disproportionately non-white, particularly black and Hispanic. They are disproportionately poor and young. These are all groups that face high rates of crime victimization, and you'd expect that, even if trans identity itself doesn't affect victimization, they'd be more likely to be victims of crime. Beyond that, my bet is that trans people spend time with other trans people; trans people commit more crimes; and so even accounting for race and income, you'd still see elevated rates of victimization.
None of this means buying into the HRC's framing that there's a systemic trans genocide going on, except insofar as our public policy choices let criminals run rampant in those communities.
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@sarker was specifically arguing that murder does not disproportionately impact trans people, and I think the data bear that out. I'm agnostic on the question of whether crime disproportionately affects them.
CW is that (holding quality of trauma care constant) murder closely tracks other violent crime, but is measured more reliably.
If the motte is that property crime disproportionately effects trans people, then it isn't connected to the bailey that the "trans day of remembrance" crowd are trying to occupy.
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Why would it? Is there any reason to believe trans are more subject to crime than average?
This report from 2021 claims that trans people are over four times more likely than cis people to experience violent victimisation, based on data from the 2017 and 2018 National Crime Victimisation Surveys. As it's based on survey data rather than police reports, the usual caveats apply.
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