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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   24187 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 8, 2025

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I mean, personally, I want Russia to get a major victory soon so the war ends. I supported Ukraine in early 22, when it looked like Ukraine might be able to win. I think you're missing this large segment of the population that just wants the war to end and doesn't care about eastern european ethnic politics in your 'pro-Russian' steelman.

Out of interest does that mean you're indifferent to Russia and Ukraine winning, whichever is more likely, just that it is over?

I am essentially indifferent to who controls the Donbass, yes, although I have some sympathies for Galicians. Russia isn't going to conquer Galicia and even the Russians know that.

I supported Ukraine in early 22, when it looked like Ukraine might be able to win.

As someone who was never really of the belief that the Ukraine could win - what evidence were you relying on for this belief? This is a sincere question, I've never heard anything that overcame my belief in the difference between population sizes, so I'm very curious why it felt winnable for Ukraine for you.

I remember when this sentiment was prevailing.I think it was mostly based on the recent memory of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, both of whom were willing to surrender (in effect) territories in exchange for (in effect) bribes. It was probably tempting to believe that some new version of them will step up and carry out a successful palace coup. People were also forgetting that an armed force that stumbles and bumbles may later actually learn and adapt. There was also wishful thinking that the Ukrainians will receive and learn to master Western wonder weapons that will sweep the orcs away.

I still think Ukraine can "win" for given value - as in its resistance has led to a far better outcome for the country than unconditional capitulation in 2022, but these conversations are what we have been having here for years to little effect. We simply have to wait for the dust to settle to be sure, and then perhaps a decade or two. Dean's comment that won a quality contribution is probably the gold standard here.

Personally, the bit where Ukraine routed and broke 90% of the fighting power of the 1st Guards Tank Army in 22 was the evidence for me that these boys could fight and Russia was really fucking up hugely - I love the saying "Hard pounding this gentlemen, let us see who pounds the longest" in relation to this war but that day had other good quotes, such as: "The Guard retreats. Save yourself if you can!”. But now we're back stuck with "is" statements.

This makes sense to me - so it's not so much "Ukraine wins" as it is "Russia loses," which I can see.

TheMotte is super slow for me now, so I'll look at Dean's submission as soon as it finishes loading - thanks!

The extremely poor performance of the Russian army for the first couple of months, basically.

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