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Since it seems that the situation has settled into another quite period while the sides sort their shit out, any other other DISGUSTING GEAR FUCKERS want to make predictions about the Special Operation?
Last time, I did better than most but still got blown the fuck out 'cause of shocking aggression from Ukraine and surprising incompetence from Russia, but Russia is running out of easy room to be incompetent and Ukraine is reaching the limits of easy aggression.
That said: Newest aid packages to Ukraine add capabilities that they did not have before, eg, a tank with a computer in it that was designed after the end of the cold war that doesn't explode if you sneeze on it, and Russia just dismissed the dude that organized the super clean double retreat across the dnipro (which was shocking; I wasn't sure it would happen but if it happened I thought it would be some combination of snafu and bloodbath).
None of this might matter given the fact that Russians are settles/behind a river.
Even with all this, it seems like the war will not end for the foreseeable future baring Putin dying of cancer and maybe not even then.
95% the war continues into 2024 in some regard
GIVEN PUTIN DIES in the next 5 months: 80% the war continues into 2024 in some regard
85% the war is HOT into 2024
90% no major territorial changes in the next 1 months
70% no major territorial changes in the next 3 months
40% no major territorial changes in the next 11 months
99% no nuclear action taken by Russia over the next 11 months.
60% Ukraine gets ATACMS in the next 3 months.
Something I never understood is why Russia hasn’t taken any nuclear action. Last year there seemed to be very serious concerns that Russia would do something nuclear and now they don’t even seem to threatening nearly as much or as loudly. What happened? I was strongly expecting them to preform a nuclear test or some other demonstration, I’m delighted that they didn’t, but find it hugely suspicious that this issue just seemed to evaporate over night.
Those (extremally specific!) fears were deeply unserious, form unserious people.
Russia has a doctrine that describes their planned use of nukes, with redlines at various stages which the special operation has not come close to reaching.
So, we are still in the general miasma of horrifying near apocalypse instead of at risk of any specific apocalypse.
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The most relevant reason is that most 'serious concerns' about Russian nuclear use are Westerner media projections, not Russian claims or actual threats. Russia does have a nuclear use doctrine, and 'use in case of battlefield setbacks' isn't a part of it. Russian nuclear doctrine is far more of 'deterrence or survival of state' thresholds, which last year's defeats were nowhere close to.
Now, Russia has regularly tried to stoke / exploit such fears for diplomatic / negotiation leverage, and that was probably a consideration in the annexation announcement late last year, but in the Putin era Russia doesn't make nuclear threats or nuclear bluffs, it simply publicizes some nuclear alert level or nuclear-capable missile (ie, a missile) and let's the west project whatever it will. This sort of bluff-that-isn't-made is entirely dependent on the audience caring, however, and if they don't, then escalating threats- even a demonstration test- just underscores that your bluff has been called and you are not, in fact, nuking the other party.
At which point, escalating threats diminishes your position, and credibility. No one would be surprised if Russia could detonate a nuclear weapon on its own territory. They've had the ability to do that for generations. Nuking yourself instead of the enemy after they go 'we're not afraid of you' doesn't make them afraid of you.
Now, there are other aspects as well, such as 'why not do a demonstration test in Ukraine?' Aside from the above, foreign pressures applied as well. In so much that it would be an escalation, it's not an escalation any of Russia's key foreign partners is interested in supporting. The likes of China and India are already generally relating 'support' to 'not joining on the European sanctions', but they also have their own very real nuclear proliferation concerns in their neighborhood. If Russia WERE to attempt nuclear blackmail, actually succeeding would be very bad for the strategic interests of most of their partners- China could see Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan go nuclear within a year, India has always had Pakistan and it's regional proliferation risks, and even actual-supporter Iran could see Saudi go nuclear. No one for whom nuclear proliferation is a regional concern wants Russia to facilitate it.
There's also a less academic, but also less provable, third option, which was that the Americans and British threatened a conventional intervention in Ukraine if Russia used nukes in Ukraine.
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