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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   34900 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 30, 2023

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Something relevant is the rumor that Hungary had armed forces standing by when the invasion kicked off, ready to occupy the sub-Carpathian part of Ukraine - the one with a big Hungarian minority, that was annexed by Soviets from Czechoslovakia during WW2.

Something relevant is the rumor

Why is this relevant?

Among other reasons, former Polish government officials alleged as early as 2014 that Russia extended feelers about partitioning Ukraine with Poland as far back as 2008.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-poland-sikorski/polish-ex-minister-quoted-saying-putin-offered-to-divide-ukraine-with-poland-idUSKCN0I92A720141020

There is, was, and remains reason to take that claim with much skepticism, but there were also (generally unsupported / long since lost in the wave of reporting) diplomatic media whispers that Russia tried to do the same in early 2022. If the Hungarian rumor is true, it'd be corroborating of an attempt by Russia to basically split the west by making the partition of Ukraine a regional affair. In practice, this would have gone a long way towards deflecting the international blame by Russia, as by giving up even small parts of Ukraine to other European countries it could easily equivocate the blame with other opportunists, split the west in a way to prevent meaningful sanctions, and underscore Ukraine's status as a fake country composed of other, 'real' nations retaking their rightful people.

Obviously that never played out,but Russia continues to maintain media campaigns alleging that Poland is planning to intervene and annex parts of Ukraine.

A Carnegie article from July of last year summarizes some of the points

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88585

We don't have any Hungarian members at all ?

This is exactly the kind of thing that would be both completely embarrassing and not at all covered in media, especially English language media.

EfficientSyllabus?

Seems so.

@EfficientSyllabus

However, he (I mean, 95%+ odds) hasn't been around for a couple of months, which is sad.

Hungarian rumor is true

A rumour being interesting if true is not enough to make it relevant.

"Big if true" is exactly the way to take:

Russia continues to maintain media campaigns alleging that Poland is planning to intervene and annex parts of Ukraine

and the like more seriously than they deserve.

A rumour being interesting if true is not enough to make it relevant.

No, but an allegation reported in different contexts over an extended period of time may be indiciative of a trend rather than a solitary reason. The plural of circumstantial evidence is still circumstantial evidence, but more of it is more relevant than less of it.

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