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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   34552 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 30, 2023

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What Orban says keeps me up at night simply because he’s right. And what’s really scary is that I don’t think either side can back down.

Sadly, I strongly suspect this will end up as an extremely extended case of sunken cost fallacy. It will drag on and on with both sides refusing to make any concessions towards peace until it's years later, countless lives lost, billions of dollars spent, destruction everywhere. Only then will both sides be so exhausted that they will be forced into negotiating a peace that makes no one happy, when they could have negotiated a similiar diplomatic postion prior to the invasion with far less cost to everyone.

I don’t think the US can be exhausted. We are not a poor nation. Exhaustion perhaps if Ukraine runs out of troops. But then you still have an option of Polish boots on the ground who have no interest in Russia on there border and plenty of past grievances.

Personally I think the west losing would be a huge negative. It puts a lot of national security guarantees under threat. Even our enemies like Iran benefit from international standards. Russia losing isn’t necessarily bad for the average guy but bad for Putin.

I don’t think the US can be exhausted. We are not a poor nation.

Exhaustion as in "according to polls stopping funding Ukraine gives us 2 extra percentage points"

I want to stop funding Ukraine. Think it’s absurd when facing these massive deficits we are borrowing about 100b to fund Ukraine. Yes it isn’t causing the deficit but it sure ain’t helping.

What is your source on the US borrowing $100 billion to fund Ukraine? The total aid according to this article is worth only $50 billion, and most of that is in-kind (old weapons stockpiles etc.) and not financial.

Here says 66b was approved by congress prior to the Omni bill at end of 2022 which promised another 48b.

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/12/u-s-aid-to-ukraine-explained/

Granted, maybe some of it is in kind. But still we’ve committed to use over 100b of assets.

But still we’ve committed to use over 100b of assets.

Note that it is much, much different from "we are borrowing about 100b to fund Ukraine". To the point that "we are borrowing about 100b to fund Ukraine" claim is untrue.

I agree it was overstated but “much, much different” is also an overstatement. A bank for example takes into account assets.

As I understand, vast majority of what is supplied to Ukraine is either

  • intended to fight Russia in the first place

  • scheduled to be disposed or would be decommissioned soon

  • without clear purpose anyway (for example confiscated smuggled weaponry)

  • send as live testing of previously untested weapons

  • send to demonstrate just how great USA weapons are (speculative, but that may be one of reasons for HIMARS)

  • in multiple above categories

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