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PaperclipPerfector  28d ago (text post)   995 thread views

Transnational Thursday for December 18, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I'm curious about Mottizens' opinions about the US administration's motivations for the regime change push in Venezuala.

I think its multi-factoral. Monroe doctrine cleansing of Iran's influence (shadow fleet, drone technology sharing) as well as potentially stopping sharing of a cleaner less high-sulphur based crude oil to China which is easier to process for US's rival.

Reclamation of oil industry nationalised assets doesn't quite sit right as Grok says in 1976 they got paid 'fair market value' and there was varied compensation in 2006 (although they straight up seized assets from Exxon-Mobil).

I believe Fentanyl/cocaine has practically nothing to do with it despite the administration's claims.

Thoughts?

I believe Fentanyl/cocaine has practically nothing to do with it despite the administration's claims.

Than what is there on those small speedboats that makes US wanting to sink them so bad?

I would guess that probably they want to encircle Brazil with right-wingish regimes.

The speedboats exist and I believe they are full of drugs, piloted by drug runners. Clearly there's some intelligence team (DEA/CIA/DIA/whoever) landside that has verified that the boats are being loaded with drugs and when they will leave. I think details about this ISR are suppressed for 'sources and methods' reasons. I personally think its great that they're being obliterated for deterrence and supply constraint reasons.

I don't think Fentanyl is coming out on those boats though. My understanding is that fentanyl production happens in Mexico under the Sinoloa Cartel and not in Venezuala by the Cartel of the Suns linked to Maduro.

Cocaine, sure. Fentanyl no. Does the Fentanyl crisis have more political gravitas that can be used as a regime change justification? Sure. Is the regime change cassus belli another 'directionally correct' Trumpism where cocaine is the real driver? I don't know. I still think foreign influence of America's rivals in Venezuala is more likely a factor and runs afoul of the Monroe Doctrine.

MAGA influencers are very eager to conflate fentanyl coming from Mexico killing thousands and cocaine which wasn’t necessary going to America to sell this operation. It's almost like they care more about being on the team and owning the libs than being honest.

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