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NFL THREAD
The NFL season is wrapping up, with just three games remaining in the regular season. The playoff picture has taken shape, and we're left with a real question for maybe the first time this century:
Are there any actually good teams in the NFL? Who are they?
We've definitely got some bad teams this year, but there's no really clearly good teams. This century, there's always been a Brady-Belichek team, or a Mahomes-Reid team in the mix, or the Legion of Boom Seahawks, or Peyton Manning was somewhere around. There's always at least one team that combines playoff experience, quality coaching, a reliable star quarterback. This year, the only team that fits that dynamic are the Rams, who remain Super Bowl favorites but have lost Davante Adams for the rest of the year and just lost to the Seahawks. The Seahawks are pretty good, but I'm just not going to have a ton of faith in or fear of a team lead by /r/TheDarnold. It's not even a dislike thing, it's just I don't think he can do it in the playoffs.
And for the most part, that's pretty much it. Last year going into week 16, there were five teams with odds better than 8-1 to win the Super Bowl, plus the Lamar Jackson Ravens sitting just below that. This year, those two teams are the only teams better than 8-1 odds right now. The Broncos are next, but I'm not sure I rate them; Buffalo comes after that and they will likely have to play three road games to get there. The Pats seem to lack that third gear, who even are their receiving threats? Houston has a brutal defense, but lacks much in offense. The Baker Bucs are a perpetual feel good story for making it as far as they do, but they're not going all the way. The Packers looked like SB favorites, but they have scuffled and just lost their best player for the year. The Lions look tough, but might not even make the playoffs, and as much as everyone loves Kneecap-Biting Dan Campbell, his rough and tough coaching style seems to leave the team injured by January. Nobody is taking the Jags or the Niners all that seriously. I guess the Bears have the whole pope thing going for them?
Which brings me, of course, to my Birds. The Eagles have been frustratingly uneven this year, and WIP talk radio fans have been frustrated throughout the year. The returning super bowl champs have achieved essentially zero consistency on offense, despite returning every starter except their RG. They lead the league in three and outs, their star receiver is complaining on twitch, their all-time-great running back has looked pedestrian. The defense has been better, but not always good enough, with a few frustrating game-losing lapses. Somehow, despite making the playoffs a likely five years in a row, making two super bowls and winning one, there are still fans in Philadelphia who want to get rid of Sirianni and Hurts, the winningest coach/qb combo the team has ever had.
That said, looking at expectations going into the season, they are at worst sitting at the median. My hope for the team was that they would 1) win the NFC East, 2) win the games I attended. They'll achieve 1) as long as they win one of their remaining games, or if Dallas loses any of their remaining games. On 2), they're 2-1 so far, with the loss on some bad luck terrible calls. Going into the season, their O/U was 11.5 wins. They could still hit the over if they win out, but they're likely to end up at 11 wins. Right where they were expected. And while I never expected a repeat, they have decent odds at a deep playoff run. Looking at the NFC playoff field, who are they really scared of? They already beat the Rams, Packers, Lions, Bucs in the regular season; not always convincingly but they're certainly capable of doing it again. The Seahawks are good, but /r/TheDarnold in the playoffs is always going to be beatable. The Niners don't scare anyone. The Papal-backed Bears shellacked the Eagles in the regular season, but that's the only team I'd feel really worried facing in the NFC? And once you get the to the big game, well, anything could happen.
Not so much that the Birds are that good, just that every team could beat pretty much every other team this year. I don't think I'd feel any differently for any of the other good teams this year. If I were a Chargers fan or a Lions fan or Bills fan, I'd be feeling pretty much the same. I feel like there's five or six teams that are going into the playoffs feeling like there's not going to be a game they're going into with less than a 40% chance of winning. This is going to be an exciting year. This is the best year to go on a surprising run since, what, 1998? It could be anybody's year.
I was lucky enough to get to attend that game, but man what a disaster it turned out to be. I didn't think the Packers were playing that well before the injuries (they seemed to be slowly losing ground after the early lead), but the injuries really put the nail in that game's coffin (and the rest of their season, I imagine). Injuries are a part of the game, but it's still a real bummer to see it happen to your boys.
I think injuries suck the most in the NFL, because you're sitting around with 52 guys that could win a Super Bowl and you're missing the one you need.
Though, of course, the Eagles won behind Nick Foles, so stranger things have happened.
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