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Notes -
Posting less as a question and mostly for self-accountability.
I made a prediction that we might see a feature length film produced by a small team using AI by the end of this year.
Well, the year has ended and I can't find any such releases that have been made publicly available. So comfortable saying my specific call is a bust.
But.
In the 11th hour, one of the creators (Gossip Goblin) I've been tracking since like July published something that at least validates my logic.
Woodnuts
If it were 80 minutes instead of 10, I'd argue it adequately fulfills prediction. Instead, I'll just argue that it proves my point that in principle a small team could have built out a feature film, insofar as its just a matter of repeating the efforts that produced the original 10 minutes to add to the length.
It avoids the standard AI 'tells.' The character's appearances are consistent throughout. There's no weird physics or physical deformities (that aren't intentional), the SFX quality is arguably a step above modern CGI in many cases (Avatar movies notwithstanding). There are some truly impressive cinematic shots in there.
Now the main hints are the short length of the individual shots, the lack of 'action' scenes to speak of, the general surreality of the environment, and the fact that they relied on narration rather than characters actually speaking dialogue. Don't think that dialogue isn't mostly solved, though.
The previous top contender was Kira (still extremely impressive on its own).
So I'm still betting on us seeing that first feature-lengther in fairly short order. And not TOO far after that, the ability to produce feature-length films from a single, fairly-detailed prompt.
Anyone else have a guess as to when such a film drops? (again, I don't say it has to be released on streaming or broadly viewed, just that it has to exist and be released in a publicly-reachable way)
Bonus Question:
When will we see an existing movie completely reworked via AI? Or perhaps just a couple of characters recast.
P.S. My other longer term prediction about AI replacing newly minted lawyers is still in play, and I did get some validation on that one.
If nothing else (and that's an if that won't hold); AI is to CGI as CGI was to stop-motion (and many other practical effects). CGI is soon to be over as the state of the art way to produce special effects. It will be reduced tremendously in it's purpose
I think that is a correct analogy.
My guess is that there might be an opening where very low-fidelity renderings are used to map out the action on screen, but AI is doing the work of dozens of other animators in texturing, lighting, simulating and 'rendering' the actual image on screen, with a human just nudging it along and rejecting outputs as they go.
The missing step seems to be fine-grained control over the details, but creators like Gossip Goblin have been able to keep an extremely consistent style, so either that's a solved problem or they've got their prompts refined to a point that they aren't having to toss out much.
The quality available at what has to be a fraction of the cost of traditional FX is going to lead to rapid uptake.
Something like SCAIL and LoRA abuses can probably do that today and is probably already getting used in that sense today, but the current version of the technology goes a little nuts for segments longer than 9 seconds, and it's painful to do even short segments using the existing workflows, on top of being egregiously slow on consumer hardware. I've seen people take it into a couple minutes by doing really aggressive generation of prompts to make a flipshow to start with, but anything longer than that tends to either end up needing to compromise on weird physics or ugly scene changes.
And the current implementations have some limits; pose info can't do talking heads well, going beyond three characters with pose info gets rough, and some particular pose changes can go full-on Exorcist. SCAIL's lipsync capabilities are worse than WAN animate, and while it's possible to combine them, it's even more finicky.
But compared to the cost and unpleasantness of traditional mocap, or even makeup? If you can possibly use this tech, there's a lot of good arguments in its favor.
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