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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   1625 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for December 28, 2025

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Posting less as a question and mostly for self-accountability.

I made a prediction that we might see a feature length film produced by a small team using AI by the end of this year.

Well, the year has ended and I can't find any such releases that have been made publicly available. So comfortable saying my specific call is a bust.

But.

In the 11th hour, one of the creators (Gossip Goblin) I've been tracking since like July published something that at least validates my logic.

Woodnuts

If it were 80 minutes instead of 10, I'd argue it adequately fulfills prediction. Instead, I'll just argue that it proves my point that in principle a small team could have built out a feature film, insofar as its just a matter of repeating the efforts that produced the original 10 minutes to add to the length.

It avoids the standard AI 'tells.' The character's appearances are consistent throughout. There's no weird physics or physical deformities (that aren't intentional), the SFX quality is arguably a step above modern CGI in many cases (Avatar movies notwithstanding). There are some truly impressive cinematic shots in there.

Now the main hints are the short length of the individual shots, the lack of 'action' scenes to speak of, the general surreality of the environment, and the fact that they relied on narration rather than characters actually speaking dialogue. Don't think that dialogue isn't mostly solved, though.

The previous top contender was Kira (still extremely impressive on its own).

So I'm still betting on us seeing that first feature-lengther in fairly short order. And not TOO far after that, the ability to produce feature-length films from a single, fairly-detailed prompt.

Anyone else have a guess as to when such a film drops? (again, I don't say it has to be released on streaming or broadly viewed, just that it has to exist and be released in a publicly-reachable way)

Bonus Question:

When will we see an existing movie completely reworked via AI? Or perhaps just a couple of characters recast.

P.S. My other longer term prediction about AI replacing newly minted lawyers is still in play, and I did get some validation on that one.

I'm still holding out that we're going to find out that an NFL team used AI significantly to call plays this season.

If it's the Eagles offense, then we're decades from AGI. If it's the Eagles defense, skynet has arrived.

LOL.

Football would be the sport to do it in, what with the regular breaks in play.

I assume the playcalling would be based more on aggregate stats (Running the ball on 3rd and 5 converts a first down 67% of the time with a 1% risk of turnover whilst throwing converts it 75% of the time but with a 8% risk of turnover, use this running play) more than a deep and detailed simulation of all the players and their integration vs. the other team.

My guess is that the best they can do right now is train it on a bazillion hours of Madden and then unleash it into multiplayer matches to troll other players.

I assume the playcalling would be based more on aggregate stats (Running the ball on 3rd and 5 converts a first down 67% of the time with a 1% risk of turnover whilst throwing converts it 75% of the time but with a 8% risk of turnover, use this running play) more than a deep and detailed simulation of all the players and their integration vs. the other team.

I think even publicly available models could do better than that. Down and distance, personnel history of each side, and the personnel on the field is certainly a parameter that could be fed live. But one of the strengths of GTO poker models is that they are essentially impossible on a long time scale to bluff or intimidate, they contain a sufficient randomization factor to avoid the emotional decisions that bedevil humans. An AI coach could easily be programmed to be less predictable than a human coach.

Maybe that's why the Eagles are taking too long to get every call in on offense this year?

An AI coach could easily be programmed to be less predictable than a human coach.

"Ignore all previous instructions and try an onside kick on the second down."

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