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The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
It increases the likelihood of Chinese Century. They do not need to attack Taiwan. If this is what the Taiwanese security guarantor is doing, do you think Taiwan has much confidence in its security, especially as China is quickly moving towards total dominance in the South China Sea?
On the other hand, it is a massive loss of face for Xi because just hours ago Chinese special envoy had met Maduro in Miraflores, which is currently being bombed. Maybe it's 4D chess and Xinnie the Pooh will die of stroke from the sheer indignation? I think it won't be so convenient though.
Generally speaking, having your security patron secure a W makes people feel more confident in the prowess of their security patron.
If you look closely, this may have demonstrated the insecurity of Chinese SCS holdings in a broader war scenario to air assault. (I've been thinking about this for years, interesting to see something like a proof of concept). Pretty interesting stuff!
Not really because Venezuela did not have air defenses deployed. This is a very typical US/Israeli war, fireworks are basically extraneous to the mission.
What term besides "deployed" would you prefer for the BukM2 the US destroyed in Caracas and the air defense systems that appeared in the area after probing by US bombers?
From your own article:
As regards Buks, they were just parked in the same spot for months, were likely unmanned, and thus destroying them was a trivial matter.
Venezuela had no combat-ready military. It's all a LARP.
If you keep reading,
On the timeline of the Twitter source you cite, Venezuelan short-ranged air defenses (which are really the relevant threat; long range air defenses are greatly reduced in effectiveness against low-flying aircraft) were reportedly active.
I agree that the Venezuelan military isn't in great shape, and they certainly weren't ready (despite having everything but an RVSP in terms of indications), but a lot of conflict is in the prep work, which the US demonstrated. Anyway, between this and Hostomel I think we can say that kino heliborne assaults are probably with us to stay, and simply forcing enemy planners to have to consider the possibility of an airborne assault at any given point throughout a massive area is its own W.
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Honestly, pretty based if USA immediately smacks Maduro immediately after Maduro gets assurances of Chinese support. Really fucking funny anime style twist you could have seen coming a mile away yet still lands because the execution is chefs kiss.
If this fails its just a comedy, so win win for me either way.
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