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The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
I'm guessing that this is one of the endless parade of things that seems like a big deal now that everyone will forget about two months from now. Maduro is out of power, sure. But he wasn't some kind of svengali whose personal leadership was necessary for the Bolivarian regime's survival. If that was anyone, it was Hugo Chavez, and when Chavez died it didn't exactly lead to a sea change in Venezuelan politics. So it will be with Maduro; as Mike Tomlin says, next man up. No different than if some foreign power succeeded in assassinating Trump. No different than how the Cuban regime has been operating for years without anyone named Castro in power.
But of course Trump will pretend otherwise, and in Trump World pretending is as good as being true, especially since the Bolivarian regime wasn't any more of a threat to the US in the past 6 months than it's been for the past 25 years. So sure, go in, remove the guy from power, declare victory, and forget the whole thing happened. We won't have to hear about drug boat strikes and oil tanker impoundments anymore, but we also won't see any sanctions relief, resumption of diplomatic relations, or new American investment. Trump will chalk up a W and his supporters will talk about how he had the balls to do what Biden didn't, but everyone will forget about this by spring. By November, nobody in the US is going to be talking about how much better their life is now that Maduro is out of power, and Republicans aren't even going to bother bringing it up in their campaigns, because they know as well as anyone that no one gives a fuck and that things aren't really that different than they were a year prior.
Let's not pretend like Maduro got old and resigned, and now there's a power vacuum for new leadership.
He was flown off by a foreign government in a midnight heist. Whoever wants to step up and take the reigns has to keep that in mind, lest they be on the next flight out.
This really doesn't seem like anything new for any South American ruler to contend with given the US's history in the region. They'd have to contend with internal rivals constantly anyway. No one that takes their rule as granted and gets complacent will ever last in any position like that.
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Moreover, they have to wonder who might have facilitated to it. While the theory of the moment is that Maduro might have negotiated his own extradition as opposed to... consequences (dim lights, spooky sound)... there are other theories that someone else might have made that deal on his behalf. Like a sort of 'Mr. President, we're under attack this way!' that led to the courtyard with the nice men with guns ready to take him away.
Palace guard? Backroom deal with Putin and the Russians in country? Generals?
It's a coordination problem. Which works against many things, but with both the President and First Combatant (as she preferred to be called) out, the Chavistas aren't exactly known for their smooth factional politics.
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