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Notes -
The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
What’s interesting is this takes oxygen from the Somalian fraud story. I guess it does so in a way that currently makes Trump look strong and the fraud story can come back when more official sources prove it / other states are caught up in it.
I very much doubt this takes the oxygen out of the Somali fraud story, as that was one which was being sustained organically through a fed up citizenry than couldn’t find Venezuela on a map.
This story has absolutely no crossover interest with the general population who has no clue what just happened or why. Nor will they me made to care. If this was distributable the mainstream media would have done it.
Don’t get me wrong I think it will still eventually burn out with very little results. But not via Venezuela stories
I guess the key point is can the Trump administration do something about the fraud or is Venezuela going to distract them. Different groups of people so should be actionable but … we will see
I think it's probably done more for people on the Left to have a new cause celebre to complain about since trying to defend the Somalis is very difficult. Trying to blindly equivocate this to Iraq or like USA is just annexing the oil supply unilaterally seems to be the current push.
What will be interesting (obviously) is what comes next. If Trump successfully makes Venezuela a functioning state with with spilling little American blood or treasure AND America gets something out of it (ie access to oil, repatriation of immigrants), then it will be a huge boom for Trump. He can basically make the case the problem with Iraq wasn’t the concept but the execution (or perhaps more to the point it is about choosing the right target). Americans love a winner.
Still think Venezuela should not be something to focus on. Fraud is compelling. The message is simple (if perhaps somewhat thought not entirely untrue): you are struggling because these immigrants are scamming your tax dollars. I’m fixing it by getting rid of the immigrants and fixing the fraud. The other side wants both of those things to continue.
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