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This story went viral A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall.
In the comments, one thing I have observed is the willingness of people to defend insider trading. Here is the highest-upvoted comment on Hackr News:
"Using insider information is how you are supposed to win these. Otherwise it's just random gambling. This is not the stock market. There are no public reporting rules for the weather, song lyrics, what Kim Kardashian eats tomorrow."
Does this sound insane to anyone else? Why isn't everyone doing this, if they aren't already? Just create a market about things you know in advance, using proxies and crypto mixers to hide your identity and money trail if needed. An Nvidia employee could make a prediction market about an upcoming chip, or an Apple employee about an upcoming iPhone. More specifically, shill accounts would create markets pretending to be an outsider, and the employee and his accomplices would place the correct bets leading up to the deadline. Wash trades by accomplices could be placed to create hype and volume to lure unsuspecting traders.
My comments of course were downvoted. They always are. I could make a comment along the lines of the "Pizza tastes great" and I would be downvoted by every pizza hater on that site and no upvotes by everyone else who enjoys pizza, as is the counterintuitive nature of online voting patterns. Writing good comments is an art in and of itself.
I’ve always thought every government worker with a security clearance should be allowed to insider trade as a way to make up for their lower salaries than in the private sector.
This comment may be more applicable to state-government employees than to federal-government employees.
@anti_dan
Employees of my state government definitely have low wages in comparison to private industry. Resignations for higher-paying non-government jobs were continual during my time there. I saw multiple highly-regarded employees, including one person who was widely considered a shoo-in for future director of my entire department, leave for private industry.
@greyenlightenment @Amadan
Pension is 1/100 of salary per year of tenure for federal workers (based on contributions of 4.4 percent of salary—Amadan's figure of 6 percent appears to be incorrect), but 1/60 of salary per year of tenure (two-thirds higher than federal government) for employees of my state government (based on contributions of 7.5 percent of salary).
They definitely have stable employment. I am ignorant of the details of the health-insurance situation.
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