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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   304 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 8, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I have thoughts on intervening in Iran: Why You Should Support Facilitating Regime Change in Iran

Excerpt:

This time it really is different

It was only with the occurrence of the 12-Day War in June 2025 that we came to understand how defenseless the Iranian regime is when confronted from the air by Satans Large and Small. Unfortunately, Iran’s domestic control on the ground is not so toothless. The prime leaders of the Iranian regime grew up as revolutionaries against the state, giving them a personal fear of and intimate knowledge how to counteract the risk of popular uprisings. They have decades of building institutional defenses against the public, with the ideologically aligned Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the key component to ensure the regular military does not take over. The country’s telecommunications network was built to be turned off as needed, which is why as I write this there is an ongoing blackout of even local communications. Prior protests have given the various security forces a great deal of experience dealing with major unrest, especially in 2009 and 2022.

Still, the ultimate fate of the Islamic regime seems sealed now. They can’t keep ruling like this. Economic conditions are dire, with little hope of significant recovery. The regime can’t print money to get out of inflation and low productivity. The protestors know that the regime can’t defend itself against Israel, let alone the US. Everyone knows Iran has no significant allies to bail it out with funds or security assistance. Unlike the massive protests in 2009 and 2022, this time the stated goal is explicitly regime change. For its part, the regime is responding with a great deal of lethal force.

There is a decent chance these protests succeed all on their own. If these protests fail now, the fundamental predicament the regime faces will only worsen.6 The regime knows its back is against the wall. They have every incentive to fight the protests to save their own skins. The only resort they have is brutality. That’s why the West should give a helping hand by perhaps bombing some worthwhile targets of the state security apparatus. Maybe give the security forces a good reason not to show up for work.

The bottom line is that it’s hard to imagine a worse long-term situation for the Iranian people, or the world, than the Islamic regime continuing its incompetent and malevolent rule.

I know an iranian expat who thinks this is the one. I'm not convinced. Without significant foreign intervention I feel the state is strong enough to resist riots. And I'm extremely uncertain of whether foreign ground troops in iran is politically feasible.

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