Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
PaperclipPerfector
11hr ago
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When do you think we should start taking the news coming out of Iran seriously? What likely leading indicators will we see when things start getting serious for the regime?
I feel like we get the "Iranian protests threaten regime" news cycle periodically, but I have trouble trying to figure out what to trust. We'll of course get biased interpretations, but what concrete facts will tell us when to start thinking big?
It's honestly difficult to see what can happen besides a revolution or millions dying at this point. They have a severe drought because of mis-managed water supply. They have Weinmar levels of inflation. They have possibly tens of thousands of protestors shot to death. They foolishly cut off internet, giving the locals little better to do than join the protests. If soldiers defect because their families are starving, it's a revolution. If the regime keeps their enforcers fed, it's mass deaths.
Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent claims that the Iranian government is wiring money out of the country. Not sure if that's business as normal or if that's a sign this is the big one.
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