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As an American I can't help but feel Greenland is the biggest blunder of the Trump admin. We already have access to the Arctic via Alaska.
If shipping is going to go through those waters, it would be with the countries we are alienating with the Greenland takeover shit. Russia can already trade with Europe. I suppose Canada and Russia could start trading through that zone, but they are both Arctic north countries that export the same kinds of things, fuels raw resources, etc. they have little to offer each other.
We already have access to Russia via Alaska. Same trade issue as Canada though.
The Alaska to Europe trade route will be new, but again that is who we are pissing off. I suppose Europe has demonstrated a willingness to trade oil with countries they hate (like Russia). But we could likely do the trade without taking Greenland.
This seems so weird and out of left field. My main hypothesis:
Those are in order of what I think is most likely. Still I have "aliens" on my list for why a geopolitical event is happening. I'm truly confused.
#3: Trump knows about the Geophysical Event, where the Earth does a Dzhanibekov flip and Greenland ends up on the Equator until it flips back.
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Yeah, I have no idea what he wants with Greenland. But I'm hesitant to say it's dementia. He clearly has some reason, because this isn't something he just pulled out of thin air yesterday, and though I hate to sound like the fevered mania of the Yellow Peril, maybe it's not totally nuts to wonder if China would try to sneak in influence there somehow.
There's room for a new global superpower. Russia has slipped from that position, and if the USA is also slipping, China wants to take over. Imagine for one moment the huge influence the USA has on the rest of the world - economically, culturally, every other way. The fact that non-Americans are on here talking about it demonstrates such reach. Now imagine China in that role. And I don't think "oh well they're not really Communists, Xi is a different type of guy, they're just as interested in capitalism when it comes to trade and economics as anyone" is going to work as "business as usual, guys, they'll fall in line with Western Liberal Values and we'll all just go along as before" shield. China will want to be a cultural influence as much as anything else, and that includes having the rest of us aligning with Chinese values (and what those are, we can argue about).
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The land has pretty significant military relevance in a situation where the United States and Russia (or the United States and China) get any more unfriendly, military analysis looking at demographics expects any such efforts to happen in <20 years if it can happen, and there's a lot of benefits to making a war expensive even if you never intend to fight one for Schelling Reasons. Trying to work within Danish rule has caused friction points dating back to the 1960s, Euro and NATO unwillingness to shit or get off the pot in Ukraine has lead to much greater skepticism that this would change in response to external military force, and all the relevant countries are actively flirting with China even well before COVID.
It's not, say, Panama. But it's still pretty important.
Meanwhile, the dollar cost of the entire country's subsidies from Denmark, and a sizable incentive for every single person in the country, is dwarfed by a single (smaller!) state's hilarious set of fraud scandals, and is significantly dwarfed by what California has used to not build a train.
The goofy part's the military threats and not modeling why the entire process is pissing off the Danes. Maybe there's some 5D Chess, or anti-Trump groups (and Trump's natural inability to post in any way but the most Boomerish possible) are highlighting military options that aren't being seriously considered, or maybe it's just trying to Good Cop Insane Cop the negotiating table.
Kill two birds with one stone: get Minnesota to take over administering Greenland! 🤣
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It's probably some combination of all of the above. Asserting dominance over the Western Hemisphere is one thing, but I'm pretty uncomfortable with the posturing and aggression if this leads the world into a US vs. everybody dynamic. The US can't win that. There will be no bullying in that scenario, and if that plays out I envision some version of true isolation and sanctions out the ass that will make things very difficult. I don't think that is politically survivable, even with an all hands on deck propaganda campaign. Canada and South America would be caught between a rock in a hard place, and it sounds like the Canadians, with their openly voiced displeasure at US aggression, would not make things easy even if they don't stand a chance militarily. All of this sounds like a very expensive price to pay for taking Greenland, unless of course the infinity gauntlet is there in which case I say go for it.
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A theory I played with was that it was intended as a distraction from Venezuela. Greenland is far more ridiculous than Venezuela, so you make a bunch of noise about it and then later walk it back, and everyone's forgotten about Venezuela.
The issue with that theory is that... Venezuela seems like a success? Why would you want to distract from it? It can be a feather in your cap, not something to bury with the next noise cycle.
My theory was that it was a distraction from Iran, but it looks like the other shoe is not going to drop there.
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Maybe the USG has proprietary information on natural resources? Public knowledge is that 25 of the EU’s 34 “critical raw materials” have been found in Greenland. Maybe that's already enough? Maybe someone found some more deposits closer to the coast, under thinner ice?
The know deposits are extremely expensive to develop and mine, especially if you care as much about the ecosystem and indigenous opposition as most EU states do, but that might change. Maybe making sure the EU (and/or China) can't ever access those has long term benefits for the US?
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Total aside, but assuming there are no aliens, I'm having a hard time explaining the behavior of certain elements of the American defense establishment on this subject, and I think other people are too. When you see discussion of why they might want us to think there are aliens, you hear a lot of what amounts to "CIA doing drugs again? IDFK" which... sure, but you can say that about any weird happening, and the effort involved here is more than casual.
If there is not something big that we don't know then their behavior often looks outright stupid. I am pretty sure these people aren't stupid. Therefore...
If we do find out there is something big later I hope we also find out who didn't know and still supported the seemingly dumb thing.
The Bank of England also recently made some weird comment about how the government needs to prepare to take actions to prevent economic collapse if the US government disclosed the existence of ayylmaos.
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