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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 26, 2026

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This forum basically presents the cause of protests in Minneapolis as "blue tribe doesn't want immigration policy enforced". If this claim is controversial, I can back it up by linking several comments from last week saying as such, so I hope you don't feel strawmanned if you're broadly anti-protestor.

I want to present the claim that what ICE is doing in Minneapolis is inefficient at its stated goals, broadly unlawful/lawless, and disproportionate. I'm going to steelman the cause of the protestors - why it's good to go around notifying others of ICE's presence, making noise, and generally annoying them. I'm not going to support any form of unlawful action with this post, as I think it's wrong and unwise for one's personal safety to get into fights with law enforcement - but I'm going to explain why 10,000 people took to the streets in Minneapolis on Friday.

I'm using Gemini to get stats for this post, but all of the writing is entirely my own. Many of the examples I take are drawn from a recent twitter thread

In 2025, there were roughly 15,000 violent crimes in the entire state of Minnesota. Let us assume all of them occurred in Minneapolis, all of them were committed by a different illegal immigrant who was immediately released on bail or sentenced to ten minutes by liberal activist judges and then released, and all of those illegals reside in Minneapolis today. 170 murderers, 2159 rapes, 2836 robberies, 9826 aggravated assaults, all of them committed by a different illegal immigrant who is now at large in Minneapolis.

ICE has deployed approximately 3000 federal agents to Minneapolis. Supposing ICE is in fact, after the bad guys, they should probably be done by now, because they only had to arrest five people each in order to get all of the highly criminal illegals out.

The problem is, they keep wasting their time by engaging in completely lawless and unbelievable actions. These have a few flavours:

a) Firstly, as shown in many videos, ICE takes time out of their day to stop and question, photograph, detain, and arrest people for blowing whistles near them, yelling at them, and generally being annoying. I sympathize that these agents have some legitimate fears of the public, there are bad dudes who want to hurt cops. But it seems uncertain that any of these actions are actually intended to promote their safety, rather than intimidate protestors. Take a look at what started the entire Alex Pretti confrontation - they pepper sprayed a woman for what purpose, with what justification?

b) Secondly, the current immigration enforcement protocol seems to act on people who prosecutorial discretion should be utilized for, and has very consistently in the past, and then the government doesn't even bother to defend its acts to judges. Take this case, wherein we have a highly sympathetic detainee - but someone who nonetheless, I acknowledge, ordered removed many years ago, but not yet removed. That said, the government's position to the judge isn't even that they should do this, are allowed to do this, or want to do this - they literally offered no argument as to why she shouldn't be released. No, seriously, they submitted a three sentence response that said "we have no argument to present" - and then didn't just release the person themselves, without being ordered to? Why not? For what purpose does the government take actions that it does not represent to a court that it agrees with? For what purpose does the government require judges and court costs to issue orders to make them take actions that they have no argument to oppose?

Thus, it appears that Respondents arrested a chronically ill, 70-year-old woman, who came to this country to avoid religious persecution and applied for asylum, who has lived here peacefully for 26 years and complied with all check-in requirements and other conditions of release, who has no known criminal record and poses no threat to anyone, without notice or the process required by their own regulations and without any plan for removing her from this country, then kept her in detention for months without sufficient medical care—and they do not have any argument to offer to even try to justify these actions. Further, having acknowledged that they have no opposition to present to Petitioner’s habeas petition, have they voluntarily released her? No. Thus, Petitioner remains in custody, and her counsel, and the Court, are required to expend resources and effort to address a matter that Respondents either cannot be bothered to defend or realize is indefensible.

Here's another case, this one directly out of Minnesota. Again, ICE should have plenty of evil criminals and pedophiles and whatnot to chase down - how and why do they have the time to go get this guy who appears to be causing no issues, other than being illegal? I understand that in the minds of many, that is sufficient, and that anyone who's illegal should be deported - ok, but what is pursuing that goal worth? Is it worth sending agents of the state to chase people down? The optimal level of any crime isn't zero, there are costs in lives, time, and tax dollars to enforce any law, and sending the government door to door for this guy is an insane waste of resources.

c) Thirdly, many of ICE's immigration enforcement actions are beyond "prosecutorial discretion should be used" - and thus, making the case for protest more important - they are actually lawless and illegal themselves. Take this case out of Minnesota. Let's assume that whatever this minor criminal history described is, it's highly objectionable, and this guy should be deported. You cannot just detain and deport someone with a pending application for lawful permanent residency, who is otherwise following the rules. If you want to deport him, you should file the paperwork to adjust his status, and give him a chance to contest it. This one is even more egregious - forget the tearjerking identity of the person arrested, just focus on the facts. This person applied for refugee status on entry, was vetted, and granted refugee status. The position of the administration, contrary to the law, appears to be that they can just arrest and detain anyone foreign present in the United States, even if they followed the rules. This is utterly lawless. Suppose that the Biden administration made a terrible mistake, and this woman is in fact a Burmese spy or a fugitive war criminal - how likely is it that figuring that out requires physical detention without warning? Has DHS actually raised a national security concern here? No - they're simply sweeping up whomever they can find, arresting people with valid paperwork, who entered lawfully, on the basis that the government has decided it wants to re-think prior decisions. This policy is illegal, cruel, arbitrary, and capricious. This is what ICE is doing in Minnesota - illegally kidnapping lawful migrants. If this alone is not worth taking to the streets to protest, what is?

d) Fourthly, and most importantly IMO, there are much better mechanisms to get to where ICE wants to go. We already have a surveillance state for the IRS that involves essentially all banking institutions and Paypal. Why won't Congress pass any number of measures that would criminalize, fine, and prevent employers from hiring illegal immigrants? If the economic opportunity were much more limited, nobody would jump the border if they couldn't feed themselves after! This would have immediate negative consequences for mostly red states, however, it would likely gut their economies in short order.

The whole reason ICE is in Minneapolis has nothing to do with criminal illegal immigrants. The federal government has decided that it wants to send poorly trained, armed, and disguised agents to a city, to intimidate and cause chaos. Those who condemn the protests miss the point - the point is to show that they're not intimidated! And this is why various administration figures spend their time slandering protestors, because the goal isn't to arrest (Criminal/Illegal/Previously Prosecutorially Discretion Tolerated, pick a combo) people, or even to reduce the number of illegal immigrants living in the USA. If that were the goal, there are cheaper, faster, easier methods that don't risk the life of any agents, unless you think Tyson Foods executives are going to shoot at federal agents if their HQ gets raided. The entire operation is political theater, not a sincere attempt at policy enforcement, and utterly illegitimate from conception.

Two other arguments that I see made frequently here are:

a) All of this is necessary because of Sanctuary Policies that the Police Don't Co-Operate with DHS, so ICE Must Go Looking For The Criminals. Why don't they hang out outside the county jail and question people on their immigration status there on their release? Why don't they hang out at the courthouse - recall, a judge was just convicted of obstruction for preventing ICE from arresting someone at a hearing, they can sit in the gallery and question everyone's immigration status at the end of every hearing! You would be much more likely to arrest people guilty of criminal acts if you did this, than going door to door and getting into fights with protestors.

b) If nobody protested or interfered, then there would be much less chaos - aren't you giving Trump what he wants? Largely, no - Trump recognized pretty quickly once he watched the Renee Good video that it was regrettable and would hurt his poll numbers and his statements reflect that. Furthermore, no, I think it's good and justifiable that people protest when the state decides to waste tax dollars and commit illegal acts while acting like an occupying force rather than servants of the public! My least favourite (former) congressional representative makes the point rather well here. The behaviour of the feds, to inefficiently pursue questionable goals of questionable legality with strongarm tactics is to blame. It is the sign of a healthy, engaged citizenry that ten thousand people decided to go out in extremely cold temperatures and make their voices heard, peacefully.

In the ACX Mark Russel posted this comment:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-418/comment/205404360

A letter from Minneapolis

I have a weird job so I pretty much get winters off. Jill and I could go somewhere warm but lately we have been going to visit our friends in Minneapolis, where she lived before we married. we stay 4-8 weeks, depending, in the dead of winter because we love our friends here and we love this city.

ICE showed up to start their "Metro Surge" before I got here, and immediately started making like difficult wherever they went. They were atrociously rude drivers. They made belligerent sidewalk scenes during apprehensions. The active folks started following them around, using Signal chats and group texts, blowing whistles to gather crowds. But you could go about your business, which we did. Records stores, restaurants, the worlds largest cross-country ski snow-making operation!

And museums, lots of great museums. We were at the Minneapolis Institute of Art's (the 'Tute, colloquially) amazing Cambodian bronze exhibit, admiring casts of metal alloys from as much as 3000 years ago when my friends phone started blowing up. "Jesus fucking christ ICE just killed a woman."

Renee Good was shot 14 blocks from our house, on W33rd, due East, on Chicago between 33rd and 34th. Minneapolis is mostly a grid, with long blocks and short blocks; these were the long blocks. That evening we walked our way there to join the crowded impromptu memorial/demonstration. The public had blocked off some streets to car traffic, with an ad-hoc combination of civil volunteers in reflective vests and some leery MPD. The level of organization of the volunteers was remarkable. There were megaphones and speechifying, angry and concerned strangers getting comfort in the crowd, and lots and lots of swearing. ("Minnesota nice and fuck you ICE is pretty much how it goes now). A Xeroxed photo of Renee was taped to a lamp post.

I was on super high alert bc I can imagine and am a firm believer in edge cases, but there were no confrontations. I am not as brave as my wife, who acts from a strain of moral clarity that can sometimes be daunting.

Now our days were about protesting. It was like a part-time job, and we made sure to put in our time nearly every day at the Whipple, a Federal building where ICE and CPB were headquartered. The feds had hastily erected a perimeter fence of jersey barriers with posts and chain-link to secure the boundary. At the 4-way-stop intersection where the entrance was, the fence had wrapped around 2 of the stop signs, rendering them more or less invisible. There were dozens there the first day, swearing at ICE, holding signs, handing out hand-warmers. Press from all over were visible (it helps to wear PRESS on your front and back, for safety). Jill would yell "shame," and this has caught on enough that it could be audible on some news reports. Every time we went, the barriers were beefed up a little more. It started as an open sidewalk across from the entrance, at the 4-way, on both sides of the road leading to the indoor tennis club. Cars with tinted windows and/or masked men were to be yelled at and rudely gestured to. Regular folks got waves, but also some collateral damage of yelling. God help you if you were a normal guy in a pick-up truck. Tennis players would sheepishly wait for the crowd to clear so they could drive in and park. My sympathies were with them, these were their lives and happiness, after all. Other opinions were less generous. The Sheriffs were in charge of keeping the intersection clear, a thankless task. I thanked them anyway, when I could, and always waved and smiled. I was an outlier, as the protest set had learned habits and retained grievances from the time of George Floyd. To me the yelling and taunting at police was misplaced aggression, and counter productive but it was their town, not mine. By now there were 2800 ICE and CPB in the twin cities, while all the local police departments totaled 2400 personnel.

Still, we got up in the morning, put on our long underwear and gloves, yelled at the interlopers until we were cold/had to pee, then went out to lunch. I have done some great cc skiing, and he really begun to improve my form in the 'skate' technique. We went bowling. I walked to one of my favorite record stores in the world, Cheapos, and went through the stacks, adding Thin Lizzzy's "Vagabonds of the Western World" to my collection. We met people out for dinner at various restaurants, sometimes on the "eat street" row of Nicollette. A child of one couple at dinner--college friends of Jill--was reported to be doing IT work of a sort for Aerolamp, I think. Small world!

Alex Pretti was killed just south of Cheapos. The Meet-up Noodle, where we held a table for 8 just two nights earlier, is kitty-corner. Not to make it all about me, but that is a 15 minute walk of 7 short blocks from our hosts' home. I won't talk about his death because you know as much as I do.

Immediately after Jill and her friend went to the scene, and were soon commandeered into helping a first-aid site for tear-gas etc in a Middle Eastern restaurant two blocks south, that the MPD had cordoned off . There were few customers. When Jill was ready to leave I reminded her that it was way past lunch and we should eat before she crashed. I could see an active buffet in the Middle Eastern, and we grabbed some plates and had a great meal. The host brought us tea.

This is how it is done here, restaurants and other merchants immediately get in on the helping action. A sex shop in Lyn-Lake was coordinating a meal delivery service for those afraid to leave home. People walk around with cases of water and hand-warmers. School parents coordinate school bus and child drop-off's to protect kids from getting snatched. Yup, that is what citizens are organizing to prevent. And while the department of homeland security assures us that they are only arresting the worst of the worst 5-year-olds, I have my suspicions that that might not be the case.

Businesses are taking a noticeable beating in the cities. Restaurants are low-hanging fruit for agents with orders to ethnically profile anyone looking foreign. There are reports of agents lunching in restaurants, then returning later to round folks up, but of course I cannot verify it. Old protest grievances keep creeping into the discussion, with a large protest downtown (It was awesome to be with so many people braving the cold) being co-billed as a "general strike." Somehow capitalism and the general economy have been implicated, although I cannot figure how. All the restaurants are losing money. Shops and businesses were expected to close on Friday, a word eagerly spread through all local media. Confusion ensued. A hairdresser friend said his staff wanted the shop to close, but hair appointments being sacrosanct, a compromise was made: staff could donate their pay and the owners would match the donation. The people continue to have spectacular hair, even under the world's best collection of warm fuzzy winter hats. But make no mistake, the economy in this town is bleeding, and that cannot continue for long. Minneapolis is in a slow and fitfull recovery from the time of George Floyd, and the recent killings have sent the community into a backslide.

I thought I could come out here for a month, relax with friends, write some articles for my blog, do some skiing. Nate Silver, ever the pollster, says the country is largely sympathetic to Minneapolans, but says the country at large doesn't feel as though it is living in a time of creeping authoritarianism, and I get that. But out here, living in it, we just wonder "how many more?"

This is such a strange and off-putting read. It's like he's trying to paint a picture of a nation under siege, while constantly undermining his own narrative by sprinkling in bits about ordinary vacation activities. There's a dark authoritarian fog settling in Minneapolis, our country is in deep danger and I'm right in the middle of it...Oh the museums in Minneapolis are fantastic by the way, Jill and I go every time we visit! It's clear he doesn't actually know what's going on and doesn't actually feel any danger, but it feels right to join the protest and yell random slogans. Jill even got the herd to chant SHAME and it got on TV, +1 cool story to share back home! Is this guy just a mop and since his wife feels strongly about it he's obliged to at least pretend it's a big deal to him too? Is it a need to belong to something and an anti government protest in whatever form is good ol' proven reliable option for it?

He doesn't talk about the why. Perhaps he truly believes it is self evident. 'I was just on holiday and then the nazis came, so I became the resistance.'

Something that stuck out for me was the 'only arresting the worst of the worst 5-year-olds'. The father abandoned the 5 year old to abscond from ICE. The author pretends that ICE is killing people randomly, arresting the innocent (including children) and otherwise being horrible people.

People really believe this? Its truly 2 movies, 1 screen.

Peace will eventually come. Reality always wins.

ICE (and CBP - Minneapolis is a joint operation) is arresting every illegal immigrant who comes to its attention, including schoolchildren. They have said they are doing this, the media say they are doing this, and supporters of the operation (including on this forum) say they should be doing this.

The argument about whether it is possible to be out of legal immigration status innocently has been done to death, but if you think the answer is "Yes" then ICE are absolutely rounding up innocents, and this is what the core MAGA vote want. The claim that Trump-era immigration enforcement is focussed on "the worst of the worst" is a lie for the benefit of low-information normies. MAGA think ICE are deporting them all and this is good, Minnesota Nice thinks ICE are deporting them all and this is bad. So mocking the "worst of the worst" lie is an entirely normal thing to do.