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Notes -
In the short/mid term I agree. Precious metals have a pretty good track record of weathering financial crises, and given the lack of fiscal responsibility being exhibited right now, at some point a huge amount of capital is going to be looking for a new safe haven.
The tricky part though is finding new places to park assets long term, the segment of the market that used to be dominated by 30 year treasuries. Each alternative store of value has its corresponding black swan events that could wipe you out:
Gold/Silver -The discovery of a large new lode made available through new tech.
Bitcoin/crypto -Large scale internet outage and/or network fragmentation (ie the US internet is no longer able to talk to Asia for some period of time). Anything that disrupts the continuity of the blockchain. I think this is a much larger threat to crypto than than shor's algorithm.
Index funds -Because they cover the Western economy as a whole, they are highly susceptible to geopolitical risk. A major shift in the geopolitical centers of power would likely take its toll on these markets.
I guess maybe long term a basket of commodities with some real estate sprinkled in might work, but that's not nearly as fungible and lacks a consistent track record. It'll be interesting to see what people do.
I’ve followed the Golden Butterfly portfolio’s asset allocation since 2017. 20% Gold, 20% cash, 20% 30-year treasuries, 20% small cap value and 20% S&P500.
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Eventually (and I'm not going to hold my breath) the asteroid mining folks seem likely to strike it rich.
This has happened before- literally half the silver that has ever been mined was extracted in one lump sum by the conquistadors in the immediate aftermath of pizzarro’s conquest. It caused gigantic inflation in Europe.
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