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Someone recently claimed that people here would greatly outperform the market given their higher-than-average intelligence. So let's run a hypothetical - you've got $1m and your goal is to 5x it (pre tax) in the next 2 years. Perhaps we can look back at replies to this post few years later and see how everyone does. Anything goes, from investing to leveraging your unique skills or connections if you have any.
My plan would be this: 900k into a leveraged Uranium long. 100k dry powder for any other opportunities - long Korean hardware stocks (Samsung, SK Hynix) right now, then rotate to INTC leaps and/or lithium, then try to time crypto bottom and buy a few good coins on spot (LINK, HYPE). I think Uranium position does a 3-4x so would have to do a magical 14-23x with that $100k.
I feel like this is just punting on stuff and not how I would professionally trad to achieve that goal.
Here is what I would do. Study every product offered by wealth advisors or etf sponsor etc and try to figure out how to use those as timing tools.
Two recent ones
At the end of the year I look for trades that have losts to position for January rips. Why? Direct indexing is growing as a product and now has 100’s of billions in assets. What does it do - its takes losses to offset taxes. Especially at the end of the year. This year I bought a lot of chemical stocks. CLX, Dow plus a few more that were in the down big camp. Index on markets has not down much to start the year. All these names rallied 15-20% between Dec 30 - Jan 15. There is some art to timing the longs but this edge seems repeatable yearly and does not take a lot of tech.
The double levered etfs all need to rebalance daily. The low in silver was basically 1:25 pm. When does the double levered silver etf do its rehedging? You guessed correct 1:25. I believe you got a $8-10 pnl from 1:25 to 2:00. You can pretty much do this trade in a retail account. If you were Jane St and wanted to do these arbs and do real size then yes you would need a tech stack to minimize slippage. I’ll be honest i missed the timing on this one. But I should have known this.
If you only did these trades at 100% account value. You now are up 25-30% in January. Keep searching for edges that will pop up in large retail products and I think you could turn $1m into $5 min in 2 years if you really focused and went all-in on these things.
Leveraged uranium long sounds stupid to me. If you mean doing something that is an etf and leverages for you. The daily rebalancing kills performance. I guess it’s fine if you are taking out the margin yourself. Everyone wants to have some brainy macro thesis right to brag about, but the real way to make money in markets is to figure out a bunch of edges to work and grind out pnl monthly.
I should've clarified. In this case, by leverage I meant stock picking uranium miners. Miners outperform spot = leveraged uranium long. Perhaps getting some leaps on miner stocks if liquidity is there, would effectively be a 3-4x leverage on spot uranium.
Be careful. Miners can be hard. Lots of fraud and poor governance in the sector. You can get the price right and lose because some African Warlord stole your uranium or insiders ripped you off on related party transactions. A lot can go wrong.
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