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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   6335 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 16, 2026

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It is very telling that all your leading examples are contemporary. An important part of this debate is that things changed when machine guns and airplanes were invented. For most of human history, the horse was the most powerful weapon on the plains, so people who loved by wandering around hanging out with horses and practicing their archery were a major menace to settled society. The modern era has not lasted as long as the Han dynasty, so we should give more time for the thesis to play out, but it seems pretty likely that the whole cycles of history thing was true for most of human history, but now it might not be.

I don’t think the broader historical record supports that, either, but it’s certainly more defensible than the pure Fremen version.

On the other hand, the machine gun and airplane are here to stay. Any reactionary with a profile picture of Roman statuary has to explain why a model which might have gone out of fashion with WWI should apply today.

My leading examples are, in fact, actually trailing. I recapitulated the case for the Roman Empire as presented by Devereaux in a comment in the thread I linked to. In short, the Hard Times argument didn't hold much water there either.

Note that you're pivoting from some combination of moral pulchritude and harsh lifestyle to the claim that the peoples of the plain had advantages in terms of access to horses and the ability to evade more sedentary great powers, you're on much firmer soil. Steppe nomads were a menace, Scott takes S-risk very seriously. Jokes aside, that is not the same argument as the one Devereaux made, or my defense on his behalf.

The modern era has not lasted as long as the Han dynasty, so we should give more time for the thesis to play out, but it seems pretty likely that the whole cycles of history thing was true for most of human history, but now it might not be.

I imagine that the people who actually believe in the Hard Times theory would be rather miffed to hear that. The main reason they're attached to it is because of the implications on the conduct and prognosis of modern civilization. It's no good to say that, hey, it worked in the past, but we're past such things. You can be as gay and irreligious as you like, as long as you've got fighter jets and nuclear weapons isn't an appealing message to them.

There's a parallel theory that, for example, American soldiers in WWII were comfortable with mechanics because farms were more mechanized in America at the time. They were used to fiddling with engines on tractors and trucks, and were better at performing tasks like that during the war.

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