This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
(1) Three dead American servicemen confirmed by Centcom
(2) A disinformation war is happening in regards to whether a school in Iran was hit, and if it were hit, whether its destruction was caused by Iran, Israel, or America. 100+ Iranian girls were killed.
(3a) It isn’t clear why negotiations failed with Iran. A day before the attack, the designated Omani mediator asserted that Iran conceded fully on enrichment and nuclear weapons: “The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never, ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb,” said Albusaidi, describing the understanding as “something completely new” compared to the previous nuclear deal negotiated under former US President Barack Obama. He said the negotiations have produced an agreement on “zero accumulation, zero stockpiling, and full verification” by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), calling it a breakthrough that makes the enrichment argument “less relevant.” On existing stockpiles inside Iran, Albusaidi said that “there is agreement now that this will be down-blended to the lowest-level possible … and converted into fuel, and that fuel will be irreversible.”
(3b) It appears that Witkoff and Kushner were instrumental in the decision to strike Iran: ”Witkoff and Jared Kushner, U.S. officials said. They told him the talks had gone badly: Tehran wasn’t willing to end its nuclear enrichment or dismantle its missile program, the officials said. That further confirmed for Trump that he had one option left, the officials said. The U.S. also had intelligence that Iran considered attacking American targets before Trump authorized strikes, a senior administration official said, adding a sense of urgency to the president’s decision. U.S. casualties and damage to American interests would be higher unless the U.S. moved first, the senior official said.”
This war was not popular before the war
The wars in the middle east tend to age like milk with steadily declining once they start running into problems. Trump is attempting to achieve in weeks what the US failed to do in 20 years in Afghanistan with trillions wasted. It isn't going to work. Oil prices will rise and the media will be full of pictures of war and disaster. Trump really shot himself in the foot.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of Americans held after the strikes began shows:
27% of those polled approve of the strikes, 43% disapprove.
55% of Republicans approve, 13% disapprove.
7% of Democrats approve, 74% disapprove.
19% of Other approve, 44% disapprove.
I haven't been able to find the actual language of the poll, however.
This feels really early for polling. At least if you are not a partisan hack.
I approve of these strikes if we win. I disapprove of these strikes if we lose. I am not sure how I would vote on this poll. I tend to think Trump has mostly won in the geopolitical games especially when he tasks kinetic action. So I am either voting “unsure” or support based on a belief that in the past he’s been good at war.
The voting on this seems to be Dems against probably based on orange man bad logic and some portion of the Dems being legitimate third worlders. GOP he has tacit support on probably thinking like me where I do not love military entanglements but if he wins and <50 Americans die I am fine with it.
At this point I might even need to include the Afghanistan withdrawal as a geopolitical win. Maybe the withdrawal was always going to be messy and it was great foresight to punt that to the next administration or at least past the election.
Going to get Maduro is 100% a win for Biden. My guess is 30-50% of Dems would still say it was bad. Those are either partisans or third worlders. Polling will be the same on this action. If we win with few American deaths then popular support should hit 70-80%. If you lose then support drops to 10%.
US public support for the Iraq War just before it started, and when the outcome was not known, was much higher (about 50% in favor) than this poll shows for the current Iran war.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Link (source)
Thanks!
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link