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One of the direr likely consequences of the war in Ukraine that often gets sidelined in Western discourse is the Moscow-Constantinople split in Orthodoxy, which I understand to be historically unusual. Deeply unclear how it'll ultimately pan out, but I doubt it's likely that it'll be truly resolved by the outcome of the war. Georgia seems to be closer to Moscow's orbit here than Constantinople's; it's the only preexisting Orthodox Church, as I understand it, that's recognized the UOC (as opposed to the OCU). The Russian state disapproves of both the UOC and the OCU, as they're both attempts to split off from the ROC in Ukraine; however, the UOC is the one that's politically closer to Russia, and so also faces the disapproval of the Ukrainian state. A lot of nuance here that I don't really understand, seeing as this is all quite foreign to me.
I’m of the opinion that the more “competition” between traditional churches the better. I would even like the Catholic Church to split into different denominations so that the one with the best spirit and art can triumph. There should be factions among Christendom so that we can measure who produces the greatest fruit somewhat-empirically, and which produces the greatest art and spiritual change according to the opinion of Sensitive Young Men (and I wonder if this explains some of the rise of the Church in Georgia). I think, also, that Israel is a fair example of how you can have national and religio-political unity without having any semblance of organizational unity among the competing strains of the religion. I mean there’s controversy with the Haredi, but otherwise no one can claim that they are socially or politically disorganized. And it does not appear that each of the Sunni schools of jurisprudence are “organized” in any way that aids their defense or prosperity despite having so many precise areas of agreement.
Orthodoxy in America may be one of the few denominations which have a genuine rise in attendance (1, 2), and while the converts might claim it is due to the history and liturgy and theology, I think instead it is an aesthetic-spiritual-vibe-feel sort of thing. (Would they attend if it was in a strip mall, there was no incense, the robes were a fugly purple, and the priest sang in gay voice? I don’t think so). However, they are starting from such low numbers that I don’t think it will really matters for a number of decades.
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The Ukrainian state is politically closer to the Ukrainian Greek-Catholic Church, which runs the other successful post-Soviet revival of Christianity and would like to suppress all Eastern Orthodox groups for heresy, but for realpolitik reasons settles for aiming the state against the more Russia-leaning ones while it slowly outbreeds the rest of Ukraine.
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