Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
- 68
- 3
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
https://nypost.com/2026/03/19/world-news/iran-executes-19-year-old-champion-wrestler-saleh-mohammadi-two-others/
Iran executes 19-year-old champion wrestler Saleh Mohammadi, two others in horrific public hangings
I personally think that once US has air domination - it would be good PR if they go after the judiciary. A good assignation campaign and couple of blown courthouses will actually win hearts and minds.
So what actually is the American long-term plan for Iran? Just keep bombing them forever, for the lulz?
There isn't one. The plan was to pull Venezuela redux, but a) the IRI regime is made of sterner stuff than Maduro's clowns b) they appear to have killed a lot of the people they imagined stepping in to fill the void.
Okay, it's not quite right to say that there isn't a plan, but the backup plan seems to be that we (the US) are going to apply pressure to Iran until they cave. The Trump administration is stuck, because they don't want to look weak by packing up and there's a lot of pressure to resolve the crisis they started, but they don't really have a good way to compel the Iranian government. While the IRI ability to fight back is pretty limited, it's not nothing and (as demonstrated back in January) they are far more willing/able to force their populace to endure hardship than the Trump administration is.
(Also, Israel appears to have distinct goals - if I had to guess, they see the window closing on their ability to borrow strength from the US and are trying to cash that in to do as much damage to Iran as possible)
Don't they? I feel like blowing up all of their leadership and military is pretty compelling. There's many reports of desertion in their army ranks already.
Also, the pressure to resolve things quickly seems to come mostly from foreign countries like Japan and India that rely heavily on Persian Gulf oil. The US is a lot more independant, and oil prices haven't really risen that badly, so there's no particular need for Trump to resolve this immediately. The only real threat is that he'll get distracted by something else and lose interest.
The record of air power in delivering conclusive outcomes is... very bad.
Well, the short argument is that it worked quite well in Venezuela 3 months ago. It also worked pretty well in Libya and Syria, if you'll overlook the civilians who died in the ensuing civil war. But it accomplished its strategic goals.
But my longer argument is that this is something unprecedented, qualitatively different from any air war the world has seen before. The US and Israel have had decades to plan this war, plus months to build up forces in the region. They have satellite and drone intelligence to locate all targets, complete air dominance, vast numbers of precision bombs, and now bunkur buster bombs to attack underground sites. They're striking something like 1000 targets per day, which is roughly equal to all the bombs dropped over the entire Bosnian air campaign. There really isn't much a ground force could do that isn't already being done from the air, unless you just want that political value of a man in uniform raising a flag. These days we could even deepfake that too.
That argument would be very wrong, as would the analogies to Libya and Syria. The Venezuelan operation worked precisely because it put men on the ground to force the issue (and also probably because Maduro's subordinates sold him out). Syria and Libya had ongoing civil wars where western air power was merely supporting a favored faction. Gaddafi doesn't get overthrown if there isn't a massive rebellion on the ground; likewise for Assad. The Trump administration (at best) seems to be wishcasting a renewed uprising after standing by and doing nothing while the IRI massacred protestors, but available evidence is that it's not going to happen.
Which is why the US is currently rushing a couple of battalions of marines from the Pacific to (probably) seize a couple of outlying islands. The idea that this operation has been meticulously planned over the course of decades is cope.
Unless you have ground forces to stop them, air power cannot stop the enemy from reconstituting once the bombing stops. There's a reason modern doctrine for the application of air power isn't "we're going to bomb until everyone's dead." The military value of air power isn't in raw killing effect, it is in the way air power allows you to precisely strike at key targets in a way that disrupts and degrades the enemy's ability to fight back. That can be an incredible force multiplier, but you still need ground forces to actually engage the enemy.
Ah, the "purist" view. So it's not a "real" strategic air win unless it comes 100% from the air, we're not allowed to make use of commando raids or friendly local factions. In fact, it was over before it began, since the mass protests in Iran disqualified the Air Force from being able to win "fairly." I suspect most military commanders don't see it that way though.
Unlike decadent Iran, which fights with large expensive ballistic missiles that are in short supply, the US fights with cheap mass produced drones like the LUCAS. There's really no need for the bombing to ever stop, unless Iran has one of those force fields from Dune that can only be penetrated by a slow-moving knife attack.
Yes. If you have to utilize ground troops to achieve your objective, it was not accomplished solely through air power. You cannot equivocate between a special operation with air support and and a pure air campaign.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link