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PaperclipPerfector  10d ago (text post)   1138 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 19, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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So apparently the gloves are coming off. Trump has Truthed out, in clear language, that Iran has 48 hours to allow all traffic through Hormuz with no threats of action, or the US will start hitting power plants. Apparently what Trump meant when he said the USA could easily open the strait without any help.

If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!

Notably to this point Iranian government sources have only put civilian casualties at 200-400, essentially one big accident and change for a bombing operation this large. From here the intention is to strike civilian targets until Iran cries uncle.

Iran in turn is threatening to strike back at gulf power generation targets. With weapons they may or may not have at this point.

How it started:

”Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

For many years, you have asked for America's help. But you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”

How it’s going:

”We’re going to turn your entire country into Gaza lol”

Hehe.

I suspect blowing up power plants is a war crime.

How is this going to win the hearts and minds of the Iranian people? The US is going to seem like a bigger enemy than the clerics now.

I get the impression that people thought I was being hyperbolic when I explained what "winning" looks like from the perspective of the US, Isreali, and Saudi right, rather than plainly stating a position.

Ideally, Iran makes a credible and verifiable commitment to dismantling their nuclear weapons program and stops supplying arms to HAMAS, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Russian Federation, Et Al. Less Ideally, we turn them into a failed state that wouldn't be able to muster up a nuclear weapons program even if they wanted one. If the choice is between reducing Iran to Afghanistan-esque hodge-podge of pre-industrial warring tribes and allowing the IRGC access to nuclear missiles we choose to turn Iran into another Afghanistan.

How is Trump supposed to accomplish that when he has no real staying power? He's sensitive to what the markets do and what the population thinks. He didn't spend any time actually prepping the American population for a real, prolonged war. All that propaganda about democracy and the free world and good vs evil has useful effects, and that stuff is not present atm. He's not in a strong position and is likely looking for some way out IMO.

You don't need "staying power" to cut off someone's electricity.

Again, I feel like people here aren't grappling with what I'm saying. You seem to think that this is nation building exercise rather than a punitive expedition.

You wrote:

reducing Iran to Afghanistan-esque hodge-podge of pre-industrial warring tribes and allowing the IRGC access to nuclear missiles we choose to turn Iran into another Afghanistan.

How are you going to do that in quick fashion?

The actual answer is that you're not. Iran is not Afghanistan. Destroying critical infrastructure in Iran isn't going to turn it into a bunch of warring tribes any more doing the same in Britain would. It's just going to lead to a lot of avoidable deaths of Iranian civilians.

I think you have assigned too much weight to the notion of a cosmopolitan UK. If you turn off the electricity, turn off the food, and turn off the water, how long do you think it would take for Anglicans and Muslims, Labour and Tory, Scotts and Britons, Britons and Welsh, Et Al to stop playing nice with each other and start stabbing? I do not think that it would take very long.

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By wiping out the state leadership and then blowing up all the powerplants.

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