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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   1090 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 19, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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How it started:

”Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

For many years, you have asked for America's help. But you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”

How it’s going:

”We’re going to turn your entire country into Gaza lol”

Hehe.

I suspect blowing up power plants is a war crime.

How is this going to win the hearts and minds of the Iranian people? The US is going to seem like a bigger enemy than the clerics now.

I suspect blowing up power plants is a war crime.

Power plants are duel use, so my understanding is that attacking them is legitimate if it is connected to a proportionate military effect. Certainly it's been done in the past, by multiple parties.

For the record, I continue to stand by my stated preference that the Trump administration not carry out a wholesale energy disruption campaign.

Possibly, one could argue that literally any action no matter how severe is proportionate to the long term consequence of shutting down the Hormuz strait.

The consequences are likely incredibly bad for the entire world, and apocalyptic for poorer regions.

My understanding is that Iran has not closed the strait to all countries, though.

It seems to me that they practically have and if they haven't then the blockade is meaningless because oil is fungible.

if they haven't then the blockade is meaningless because oil is fungible.

Right, but they can perhaps impose some inconvenience/cost on most hostile states and avoid imposing that on less hostile states.

It's also an easy way to demonstrate capability - a shot across the bow.

There seems to have been no such attempt thus far and i genuinely struggle to understand how it would work.

It works like saying "we're going to sink any ship from X countries but Y countries are fine" and then trying to sink any ship from X countries that tries to transit the Strait and trying not to sink ships from Y countries.

As long as you can keep an eyeball on the Strait (it's 24 miles at its narrowest point) it should be doable. The best way to do this is probably from the air or underwater, but I am not certain to what degree Iran can accomplish that with their current tech in the face of US operations. However Maersk and the like probably aren't inclined to gamble.

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