site banner
PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   1009 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 19, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

2
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Hehe.

I suspect blowing up power plants is a war crime.

How is this going to win the hearts and minds of the Iranian people? The US is going to seem like a bigger enemy than the clerics now.

I suspect blowing up power plants is a war crime.

Power plants are duel use, so my understanding is that attacking them is legitimate if it is connected to a proportionate military effect. Certainly it's been done in the past, by multiple parties.

For the record, I continue to stand by my stated preference that the Trump administration not carry out a wholesale energy disruption campaign.

Possibly, one could argue that literally any action no matter how severe is proportionate to the long term consequence of shutting down the Hormuz strait.

The consequences are likely incredibly bad for the entire world, and apocalyptic for poorer regions.

My understanding is that Iran has not closed the strait to all countries, though.

It seems to me that they practically have and if they haven't then the blockade is meaningless because oil is fungible.

if they haven't then the blockade is meaningless because oil is fungible.

Right, but they can perhaps impose some inconvenience/cost on most hostile states and avoid imposing that on less hostile states.

It's also an easy way to demonstrate capability - a shot across the bow.

There seems to have been no such attempt thus far and i genuinely struggle to understand how it would work.

It works like saying "we're going to sink any ship from X countries but Y countries are fine" and then trying to sink any ship from X countries that tries to transit the Strait and trying not to sink ships from Y countries.

As long as you can keep an eyeball on the Strait (it's 24 miles at its narrowest point) it should be doable. The best way to do this is probably from the air or underwater, but I am not certain to what degree Iran can accomplish that with their current tech in the face of US operations. However Maersk and the like probably aren't inclined to gamble.

That I understand that but such a blockade would be useless due to the fungibility of oil. That's why I said I failed to understand how it would work.

The blockade is painful because it restricts global supply not because it hinders specific shippers to get through or get to specific customers.

If you let the oil through and the oil is allowed to get to India/china/Pakistan or wherever, global prices will normalise and make the blockade meaningless.

The US gets zero oil from the middle east and they are still hurting currently. Europe gets like 15% of it's oil from the middle east, and they're still hurting.

Btw, I'm not the one downvoting you.

More comments

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats