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Notes -
Iran has allegedly mined the strait of Hormuz
I've seen a lot of discussion online about whether or not Iran would mine the strait, and it looks like it's happening.
I'm curious as to what is driving this. My understanding is that the Iranian military is structured so that military units can operate with a lot of autonomy if the chain of command breaks down. Is this a small, but official action, or is it the action of units who are operating with what they have in the absence of official orders?
What are the global economic impacts of mining the strait? I tangentially work in insurance, and talking to the Actual Insurance Guys, it seems like this is probably just as bad as regular missile attacks, if not worse. Do commercial ships have any way to protect themselves against mines, other than "don't be where the mines are"?
I've also been seeing vague rumblings in the news that non-Israeli Mideast nations may materially contribute to the conflict. Does this move the needle?
It seems to me that this represents a pretty significant escalation. While sea mines are not land mines, they are both indiscriminate area denial weapons that have significant risks of civilian casualties that can last long after the end of the conflict that caused their emplacement. They're hard to find and create significant anxiety for anyone who has to traverse the area.
Is this a good strategic move by Iran? I'm not an expert on global geopolitics, but my gut tells me it harms them more than helps them. Fighting a defensive war against the Great Satan put the Iranian government in a very sympathetic position with their neighbors, but shutting down one of the most important economic transit corridors in the world with weapons that most governments find distasteful at best seems like a signal to the region that Iran will drag everyone into the flames along with them. Theoretically, this might pressure those countries to abandon the US, but that's a high stakes choice.
Not especially mine related but a new anti-Trump pro-Khameini AI-assisted dis track has been released, allegedly sanctioned by the Iranian government (I'd like to see confirmation it's official, mind you).
https://youtube.com/shorts/7C_G756zLpw
It's not well crafted on any level really but it's catchy and made me laugh, I can't deny, despite the gravity (or really because of the gravity) of the global situation.
It also feels like beating Trump at his own game.
It's incredibly childish and hammers Trump on being a loser, instead of failing to live up to some democratic or presidential ideal that was never one of his selling points in the first place. I don't suppose a high-minded democratic opponent could or should get far with this approach but for an authoritarian opponent that wants to wrestle pigs, this seems like the way to go.
In its irreverence, it also subverts a lot of the austere extremism that I associate with the Iranian regime.
America should be invulnerable to these kinds of playground tactics from a pernicious regime, but it isn't, having surrendered too much moral high ground.
Funny and catchy, but too long and strikes the wrong tone. I would have thought, “look what we have to do to defend ourselves” worked well for Palestine, while, “lol, want us to kill more of your boys? We can do this all day,” is very provocative from a country as essentially weak as Iran. Maybe they just don’t like playing the underdog.
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