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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   16161 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 23, 2026

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There is no principle under international law that the other party must accept your denials of plausibly deniable proxy warfare: the determination of plausibility, and what to do with it, has always rested with the other party.

I agree. I think part of the issue is that Israel has been waiting for years to strike at Iran openly and directly. Partly because right now is a politically opportune moment, but also because a lot of groundwork had to be laid to set up a viable path to cross the hundreds of miles. During that time, a lot of people assumed that Iran's "I'm not touching you!" strategy was effective, that there was some norm or law which was preventing Israel from striking openly and directly.

There are a number of regional states that fought multiple wars against Israel who have chosen other paths

Agreed with this too. Iran doesn't need to become a peace-loving democracy, Iran's leadership just needs to find some other raison d'etre besides trying to destroy Israel.

Partly because right now is a politically opportune moment, but also because a lot of groundwork had to be laid to set up a viable path to cross the hundreds of miles.

Agreed on both of these parts. One of the frustrating elements of the early-war discussion was something barely discussed at all- the fact that both US and Israel have elections this fall. Trump was already more or less doomed to lose the Republican trifecta, but Israel was also going through a potential major shakeup. This was a political window of opportunity for both parties, even aside from other elements and potentially limited opportunities.

This is not a claim that it's an opportunity that should have been taken, or was right to have taken, or any such thing. But Israeli political calculus would be factoring the potential 6+ years before the next potentially favorable US executive, and the US executive branch that's been trying to settle issues (starting with Venezuela) would be measuring the window of opportunity in even shorter time frames.

Yes! Trump is legacy motivated and he knows that without some major shake up he's going to spend the rest of his time in office being impeached repeatedly.

This might not save him from the midterms, but it may buy him a legacy he wants.

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