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I was told repeatedly by the US government, Israeli government, and many users on this board that Hezbollah was destroyed. I wonder who is destroying the dozens of Merkava tanks every night which I can watch on telegram.
The Iranian military is destroyed or nearly destroyed with no leadership and yet I can watch between a couple to dozens of Iranian missiles fall on Israel on telegram every night Israel claims they've intercepted nearly all of them with attached pictures of booster stages. And I can watch much more falling on American bases and more in Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and elsewhere every single night telegram.
/edit: The fog of war is thick and it makes it very difficult to carry on a dialogue about this topic because my beliefs about reality on the ground in this conflict and the beliefs of most on this board do not overlap much which makes most dialogues turn into bickering about facts on the ground which I have little interest in engaging in. However, I do have some comments and predictions: /edit
At this point, the only goal of the Trump administration after starting this preposterously stupid war for Israel being conducted in a slapstick, idiotic, and dishonorable way (not to mention the political suicide of Trump's winning coalition), appears to be to extricate the US without looking stupid and weak in an obvious loss.
But I think that ship has sailed. The only way the US doesn't suffer a strategic defeat is a vast escalation which we are incapable of (I hope) so the real question is whether it's going to be a strategic or catastrophic defeat. If the US successfully militarily reopens the Straight of Hormuz (which will not happen), then Iran can simply demonstrably destroy all oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and it won't matter the Straight is open because there is no oil to ship and they will do it because we've made this existential for them.
My prediction is the US will abandon most if not all American military bases in the Persian Gulf, Iran will have de facto sovereignty over the Straight of Hormuz and charge passage fees, and Iran will emerge stronger than ever.
Which wouldn't be much of a difference because that is fiat accompli right now. We have basically abandoned all 16+ bases and for almost a month soldiers and other staff are hiding in hotels amongst civilians in at least Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. CENTCOM has to beg Iraqi militias for a ceasefire so they can abandon the greenzone in Baghdad, which we then promptly violated because that's how we apparently roll. and the CENTCOM Navy HQ has been obliterated and is uninhabitable. Not a single American warship is in the Persian Gulf or within 500mi of Iranian territory. We're now taking off from bases over a thousand miles away (some of which are all the way in the UK or even the US) with webs of lillypad tanker circuits refueling aircraft because we cannot protect aircraft on the ground within 1000mi of Iran. Based on talks I've had with friends who joined and fought in GWOT and are still in, the morale in the US military, at least over there, is bad.
There is no credible reason to think negotiations are happening and Iran publicly stating their War demands is not properly described as "negotiations." Additionally, the Iranian's public demands also include the US leaving its military bases in the Persian Gulf as well as covering Lebanon and some more I forget at the moment. The Iranians have already rebuked Russia, Pakistan, and will soon (if I had to guess) rebuke Egypt offers of trying to come up with a starting point for negotiations. The 15 point peace plan is detached from reality and DOA. At this point, the US Government appears to be agreement incapable after having shredded its diplomatic credibility so now we have to rely on hard power.
Great job everyone! Apparently what Trump didn't like about the Iraq War was the years of planning and preparation.
Sure, all Americans will soon be getting slammed by large increases in the cost of living as oil spiking filters through the world economy (producer inflation is already near 2% in a single month), but at least some connected insiders are getting filthy rich frontloading huge futures buys 10 minutes before each big Trump administration announcement.
Meanwhile, one million of Shiite inhabitants of South Lebanon fled their homes. They will be never let back (and will have nowhere to return).
They were the "sea" in which Hezbollah was swimming, they were source of Hezbollah recruits and reinforcements. This is over, this is now Israeli land, ancient land of Asher and Naphtali tribes restored.
Hezbollah can for some time hide in the ruins, until they are bombed out and hunted down. That's all.
Past a certain point, sanctions are going to come down and then Israel is finished. A large country can withstand sanctions, small countries with fragile high tech economies cannot. The Germany 1939 gambit of securing more lebensraum and expelling ethnic enemies only works if you're a big country with a large army.
Sanctions from whom?
China does not GAF, they want to make money.
India GAF about Muslim lives even less.
Russia the same.
Muslim world? It already sanctions Israel or sanctioned in the recent past, Israel lived with it.
Europe? Maybe, if it goes fully Muslim or woke but this is not happening soon, and Europe is not so important as it used to be (and getting less important every day).
US? Again, it will require all boomer Evangelicals die off, and this will not happen soon either.
And who has more money, the Israelis or the Arabs? China's official stance is pro-Palestinian, being anti-Israeli fits with their whole BRICS thirdworldism ethos. Iran is a friend of China, Israel is on the other side.
The moment America stops shielding Israel, stops debanking and harassing anyone who goes against Israel, the whole structure comes crashing down both militarily and economically. Boomer evangelicals are dwindling in relevance.
Expelling another million people and creating another migration disaster is not going to make Israel any friends in Turkey or Europe and will only bring forward disaster. America routinely throws allies under the bus, so too will be the fate of the 'greatest ally'.
China also has good relations with, Israel and the Gulf Arabs, who are not really against Israel these days. They want to make money not pick sides in Middle Eastern disputes.
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Israel has invaded south lebanon many times, why will they stay this time?
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