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It will work because USA has limited goals in Iran. No nuclear program, inability for Iran to close the strait and no long range missiles. And they will be left to live and roll in their islamic sty of their own devise. Freedom for Iranian people, secular regime are nice bonuses, but not that important. If you kill the people that can only say no, eventually some that are amenable to yes will come to power. So the deal that the US is offering Iran is pretty sweet. Eventually there will be a clique of takers. Rule however you see fit a nation of 90m with reintegration into the global economy and the massive growth is nice.
Whereas Israel wants Gaza to not exist. Their dehamasing special military operation needed to be much deeper. And Israel didn't had the guts to conduct it properly.
Those are all impossible dream goals without an occupation, is the problem.
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These are all basically impossible. Nuclear program only one that's even remotely possible.
Long range missiles aren't hard to make anymore, and it wouldn't be that hard to build them in secret. Or just build dual use stuff and if needed you can start making them again.
Stop them from closing the straight? Genuinely impossible. Sea mines are ANCIENT tech. Shaheeds are powered by lawnmower engines in some cases and you can literally make suicide drones out of things like wood, cardboard, and Styrofoam. You also need a tiny amount of actual munitions to close the straights, as what actually closes them is insurance companies going "you're own your own if you're hit"
The Houthis are the proof of concept here, as are the Somali pirates. You can be a threat to shipping from a completely failed state.
The Somalis are only a threat to shipping because much of Europe is too oikophobic to let merchant crews give incoming borders the whiff of grape-shot they deserve.
The Houthis in turn represent a significantly greater threat to shipping in large part because Iran has been supplying them with intel, aircraft, and anti-ship missiles which is one of the reasons we are trying to degrade Iran's capacity to so.
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