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Well, maybe. Let's see how many weapons they're able to build after being bombed like this.
In the past, people have complained that the Houthis/Hezbollah/Hamas/Iraq insurgents, etc, were still able to launch attacks no matter how much the US or Israel bombed them. This was often suggested as some fundamental limit on airpower. But it missed that those insurgents weren't, for the most part, making homemade weapons- they were getting them shipped in from Iran. Making those weapons requires state capacity- a large factory, explosives plant, and training on how to make and use them. They can't do any of that when the US is constantly bombing your missile factories, explosives plants, and anyone who shows up on intelligence networks as a likely munitions expert. Not to mention their entire economy was falling apart even before this war started. I couldn't possibly make a 1910 sea mine in my garage using just what I have lying around and no training, could you? Instead what they get is more like what the Afghan insurgents had- crude, unreliable IEDs that could maybe blow up an infantryman but couldn't possibly threaten a ship or airplane. And even there, they were likely getting support from Iran.
I expect there will be a CSG hanging around the Persian Gulf for a long time, but that's hardly a new development. But anyway the carrier planes are way overkill for shooting down shaheeds. Bogey's air speed not sufficient for intercept, suggest we get out and walk. Instead the US and GCC are using Apache helicopters armed with guns or cheap rockets to shoot down drones. And if this continues for long, we can set up lasers like the iron beam in Israel to shoot them down even more cheaply. The only way pure drones break through that is with overwhelming numbers, and they just won't have that without industrial state capacity to both build and coordinate attacks.
Yeah the offense/defense paradigm vis a vis drone vs interceptor cost is what ultimately will determine this.
They are getting, as Trump said (made me laugh, misremembering exact words) "the shit beaten out of them". So yeah there's a world their industrial capacity goes towards zero.
Luckily (ish) for them, they also share a continent with Russia. So there will never be a world in which they go to zero Shaheeds, as Russia will likely happily start shipping some. Although tricky balance for Russia, as right now Trump has forgotten they exist, which is a huge advantage for them vs Ukraine.
I also think they could easily make garage Shaheeds. They'll suck, they'll kill Iranians when they randomly explode or misfire, they'll be easy to shoot down. But again, you don't need to hit every ship, or even many ships, you just need to make insurance companies shit their pants.
And I again doubt the median US voter would be very happy with a semi-permanent "missile swatting" exercise which, even if it's done without a CSG, will start costing eye watering amounts of $$$, especially once airframe wear and tear starts getting priced in.
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It begins.
Coordinated strikes have hit all three of Iran’s largest steel plants simultaneously – Mobarakeh, Esfahan, and Khuzestan
Yes, Iran is (or was) industrial country, world's 10th steel producer.
It is not about freedom and democracy any more (LOL, never had been) but about reducing the country to the medieval age.
Yes, they can do it. WW2 examples do not matter - in 1944, precision bombing meant hitting the right borough of right city, today it means hitting the right pane of the right window of the right building.
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Unfortunately, as long as they can conceivably get one drone through and hit a ship, they can close the Strait via the insurance cartel. I'm not sure if the United States is actually capable of setting up an insurer outside the cartel which would meet all the requirements of various international regulations and treaties.
I love how much you hate the ship insurance cartel. I didn't know about them until reading all your comments recently, and you know what, fuck em, I don't like them either.
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