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Notes -
Let's discuss democracy, and the decay and potential recovery of two anglo-origin democracies.
South Africa is clearly having a rough time at the moment. Anemic growth, mass joblessness, the spread of slums, ultraviolence on the streets.
The party largely responsible for this the ANC has a declining vote share but still commands the loyalty of a plurality of the electorate. In addition, most of the parties opposing the ANC are not exactly free marketer reformers of the type that might rapidly turn some of these issues around. Since Apartheid ended more than 20 years ago and these trends are deepening, it seems that the decay has not swayed most voters away from the policies that caused the issues.
A friend of mine said that he has full faith in the UK (Great Britain) to recover fully from its current woes, because one day voters will wake up and see that governance is terrible and getting worse, and they will vote for the opposition who will fix things.
Certainly, some of the parties in the Yookay are trying to fix things through structural economic and social reforms (Reform, Restore), but the plurality of voters including young voters favor parties that would either deepen or continue the issues (Greens, Labour, Muslim Indie Bloc)
Note: from the perspective of this poaster the main issues facing the UK are: Low Skill Immigration, Economic Stagnation, Integration of Non-European Migrants, Crime
So I ask the Motte: Do you believe that in anglo origin democracies that enough decay will have voters seek out parties with effective fixes for the issues, or merely cause voters to slowly rebel against the incumbents?
No. Things can always get worse without resistance. Look at Cuba, the situation is much, much worse now than many people - even those hostile to communism - imagine. The country has, since 1991, slowly gone from a moderately poor but functioning socialist country like the former Eastern Bloc or China at the time, to the poorest country in the region after Haiti. The people are starving, there’s no electricity, no medicine, no fuel. The economy has been collapsing for 35 years. There is extensive reporting that even the Chinese have strongly recommended pursuing China or Vietnam style capitalist reforms, but the regime leadership are, moreso than the Chinese or Vietnamese, die hard communists loyal to central planning as an economic theory.
This is true historically, too. There were empires that took centuries to collapse. In my opinion, the institutional inertia around immigration for the Anglo countries is too high to solve. The public don’t have the stomach for what is required. Look at Minneapolis; ICE would probably have to kill hundreds of thousands of American citizens to outweigh even a small part of the damage caused by massive third world immigration. The only thing that could save it would be some kind of sudden, deeply unexpected overthrow of democracy in a Western country, but there’s a 90% chance that only makes it worse. You only get one LKY in a century, if that.
Damn its crazy what happens when the world's super power is constantly fucking with it and preventing it from interacting with the world's economy.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/
Also I had a good laugh at the title "ADDRESSING THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES BY THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA"
Further laughs can be had immediately after, with this gem
"The Government of Cuba has taken extraordinary actions that harm and threaten the United States. The regime aligns itself with — and provides support for — numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States, including the Government of the Russian Federation (Russia), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Government of Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah."
Ahh yes Cuba, the rich benefactor of Hamas. Their economy is so dynamic they also support the governments of Russia and China simultaneously!
I live in the fucking clown world universe. My government is not comprised of serious people who want to solve the issues my nation faces.
I mean, Cuba has had decades to wreck itself before the US decided to embargo anyone trading with them just this year.
You will not find me carrying water for the Cuban government, who I understand to be ideological morons.
But its started earlier than January 2026.
1992 The Cuban Democracy Act barred foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies from trading with Cuba, extending the sanctions beyond direct U.S.-Cuba commerce. It imposed the 180-day vessel rule, penalizing ships that traded with Cuba by barring them from U.S. ports for six months afterward. It also directed the U.S. government to pressure other countries to restrict trade and credit with Cuba.
1996 The Helms-Burton Act directed the U.S. to oppose Cuba’s entry into international financial institutions. It also created Title III lawsuits and Title IV visa penalties aimed at foreign companies and executives dealing in confiscated property in Cuba, explicitly raising the cost and legal risk of non-U.S. investment in Cuba.
2017 The U.S. created the Cuba Restricted List and barred direct financial transactions with listed entities tied to Cuba’s military, intelligence, and security services, deliberately steering outside money away from large parts of the Cuban economy.
2019 The U.S. activated Title III of Helms-Burton, after years of suspension, allowing lawsuits against foreign firms accused of trafficking in confiscated Cuban property. Increased legal risk of foreign investment in Cuba.
2019 The U.S. ended group “people-to-people” travel to Cuba and banned cruise ships, yachts, and many private aircraft from travelling there, directly cutting off tourism revenue.
2019 The U.S. sanctioned vessels and firms involved in Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, targeting Cuba’s outside energy supply.
Less serious, but general squeezing of remittance flows: 1994, 2019, 2020
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