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PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   18874 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 30, 2026

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Not lower the debt at all, public or private; and in fact increase the debt massively. (This one didn't amount to much, there isn't much money to be made here until the US starts to go downhill for real, so it's just positioning for now.)

The US has seemingly defied every prediction of its debt being unsustainable. GDP keeps going up,so the debt is inflated away. Those who keep predicting collapse or other crisis keep being wrong.

I've recently made a bit of a small amount of a fuckton of money based on starting amounts; took my fuck around money and plowed it into you guessed it, oil futures and related industries before it became clear that no, he really is that stupid. I'm up a lot on top of my previous gains from betting (read: instructing my investment guy who tells me which southeast asian restaurants are for real) to bet as if the various Trump economic policies would:

The second trump term has been a huge boon for me investment-wise: correctly shorted Bitcoin, anticipating Trump would not follow-through on the widely anticipated or hoped BTC reserve.

Bought dips during Liberation-day selloffs ('TACO' meme)

Continued to trade various dips and rallies by selling various option spreads anticipating quick recoveries from selloffs and inflated implied volatility, and rangebound markets

The anticipated post-tariff inflation surge never came to be, so I profited by being invested in tech stocks and the overall economy doing well.

Also made $ on polymarket betting against Trump mentioning Bitcoin (these are called "mention markets") and against the Bitcoin reserve.

I think it's possible to make $ following whales on Polymarket/Kalshi who possibly have insider info, but haven't looked into it much. I noticed on the 28th, the eve of the attack on Iran, someone placed a $20k bet on the contract "strikes in the next 24 hours", an hour before it jumped off. The contract surged from 14 cents to 20 cents almost instant and the stayed at 20 cents for 40 minutes until finally going to $1.

GDP keeps going up,so the debt is inflated away.

But the debt grows even more, hence the ratio of debt to GDP is increasing. And the tiny bit that was inflated away after COVID part was also not so free, the bondholders are no longer willing to give their money for peanuts and the interest rates are much higher than a few years ago.

The problem with debt is that it can be meaningless for a long time and then it can matter a lot. Like the famous Lenin quote "There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen".

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